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Saturday, 02/09/2008 2:14:11 PM

Saturday, February 09, 2008 2:14:11 PM

Post# of 173972
TCCO my thoughts on earnings

Obviously a blowout blowout quarter

Which leaves us with the outlook of lower orders on their DS9000 for the remainder of the year vs Q1. I was contemplating how to view the company.

I have concluded the answer is it still looks a pretty dang good value which should be recognized.

Its not a shock that they don't currently have orders to ship at the rate of Q1. Q1 was downright historic in terms of results. They do however have 3.2 million in backlog. The .34 quarter came off a backlog of only 2.5 million. That tells me while they may not do .51 they can certainly be expected to do in the .34 range for the next 2 quarters even if they don't get a single new order. That still makes it pretty cheap at this price.

Their products do seem to be gaining traction and they are selling to niches that feel almost 0 impact from a recession.

Assuming forward earnings of 1.35 its still trading at a PE under 5. Insiders recently excercised options at pretty close to the current price. That gives them plenty of incentive to execute well.

It should go up some from here but I don't think it goes nuts. I had visions of share prices of $20+ if backlog and outlook were way up. As it stands fair price is probably 10-12.


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