CUMBERLAND RESOURCES (CLG : TSX : C$2.30) - SPECULATIVE BUY - 12-MONTH
TARGET PRICE: C$3.45
Graeme Currie
Comment: Cumberland pre-production capital costs for Meadowbank exceed C$350 million
Last week, the company announced that a delay in the feasibility study would result in a one-year setback in the planned development of Meadowbank as an open pit gold deposit. The company also indicated that initial elements of the capital cost estimates were higher than expected. Yesterday, the company provided some further clarification by announcing that current pre-production estimates for capital cost, including a 12%contingency, were over C$350 million for a 5500 tpd facility. Cumberland indicated that the enormous jump in this estimate was due to increases in almost all items required for construction. Insofar as additional data regarding the breakdown of the capex figure or changes in operating costs, etc., no further details were given. In our discussion with the company, it was indicated to us that until Cumberland staff completes a thorough review of the feasibility costs, additional details might not be forthcoming for several months. Because of this setback, we now do not expect a completed feasibility study until late this year, as issues such as the filing of an EIS report we expect will also be delayed, since this documentation requires portions of the feasibility study as part of the filing. We lower our target price from $5.30 to $3.45/share and maintain our rating of SPECULATIVE BUY.
