From Sparky: Saturday 03/20/04 10:32am cst
Hi Everyone,
Comments above which express concern about creating a gap open should certainly not be ignored; but much care should be taken not to compare gomd too closely to GETC, UGMI, or most other stocks that may have gapped.
Sparky bases this do-not-compare warning on the tiny size of gomd's float relative to even the small floats of GETC and UGMI.
While it is not Sparky's intention to cause a gap open, particularly a large gap, there does not exist any cast-in-concrete rule which states that this stock, especially with only about a million-share free trading float, has to fall back just to fill a gap.
Also, what those who are predicting a gap open are really predicting is a supply-demand imbalance at the open.
Now with such a tiny free trading float, and not knowing the eventual magnitude of total HSM Member demand on Monday morning, Sparky knows better to predict just how gomd shares will open.
But expanding on this supply-demand notion, let's not forget that these gomd shares rose significantly during Friday's session from 15 to 29 cents.
What makes Friday's 93% spike particularly noteworthy is that, with the exception of Wednesday's close at 22 cents, gomd shares never closed over 17 cents during the past month. And if we go back a whole year, with the exception of few days last July, these gomd have not traded north of 20 cents until this past week.
Translating this into supply and demand terms, Sparky thinks that the rapid rise on Friday, especially since it happened without any company news and on a Friday, will prompt a wave of post-weekend profit taking that should somewhat offset and largely absorb the collective demand from HSM Members.
And incidentally, over the past 12 months, volume in gomd totalled 3.2 million shares, about three times the free trading float, and we've seen a closing high of 29 cents and a low of 3 cents.
In just the past month, 8.5% of the past year, volume has been just over 1 million shares (one third of the total year) and the closing price range has been 10 to 29 cents.
To conclude, although Sparky doesn't intentionally wish to cause a gap open, he does think that these gomd shares are extremely undervalued and that the risk of missing out completely on the near-term run envisioned is a far greater risk than possibly causing a small gap that doen't necessarily even have to be filled.
In a nutshell, what we have here is not a "normal" situation and accordingly Sparky warns you all not to expect "normal" trading in gomd shares.
Sincerely,
Sparky
