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Alias Born | 08/11/2003 |
Friday, January 25, 2008 8:04:57 PM
"I think the following has a fairly good chance of occuring within the next 12 months:
Because of the ever increasing pressure from the SEC and DoJ (this is a certainty), Offor could be willing to sell/swap his shares in ERHC to another public company for shares (not cash). This company would certainly have to be very familiar with the region and have its own politcal connections (obviously not in conflict with Offor's).
From there, the acquiror could make a follow-on offering on the same terms to the rest of the shareholders.
This would be attractive to Offor for a number of reasons:
1. He maintains an upside on ERHC's assets and rights.
2. Depending on the size of the acquiror, he could end up being a significant shareholder and able to maintain a board seat. This is an important for the ego factor.
3. It would be better for Offor is the acquiror is not a US company. This would allow Offor to get his ownership of the assets outside of the grasp of US regulators. This insulates him against any potential judgement in the US.
I would think this would be attractive to the rest of us shareholders:
1. We maintain an upside on the assets and rights.
2. With Offor remaining a significant shareholder, we maintain his interest and connections to ensure our interests in the region are protected. This is very important to a number of people who think we lose the game if Offor stops playing.
3. If the deal is done with a company with its own connections, we are even more secure.
4. So long as the acquiror is listed in a reasonable jurisdiction (UK, Canada, Hong Kong, Australia) we can be happy with the liquidity.
5. Presumably the acquiror will have real management and operations that would dovetail nicely with ERHC's assets and further rights. In this case 1 + 1 = 3 for everyone.
This is an opinion in reading the tea leaves, not a statement based on fact. We can think amongst ourselves who might fit this profile.
I don't see anything bad in this scenario, but I'm sure others will correct me."
.....he recently agreed with Oilphant about ERHC not being ERHC much longer. While he didn't state January, he inferred he thought it would be close. Over the years....yes, years, he has gained alot of weight with me. He was the ONLY poster to very accurately describe ERHC's finally carried interests before we learned from the co. He wasn't exact....but so close that I weighted his posts heavily from then on.
Afren voting? Dunno. But again, they wouldn't have to vote if they decide to do a private deal with SEO for controlling interest. A schedule 13D will have to be posted following any such transaction.
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