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Re: GIBBER post# 4011

Monday, 01/21/2008 7:26:03 AM

Monday, January 21, 2008 7:26:03 AM

Post# of 11473
Gibber...first off i am referring to NNRF s 2007 numbers...
here s where i think they will come in...
1 st Q...US$18,935,839 and net income after tax of US$5.038 M..of than NNRF had 13.25% or profit of $667 K

2ND Q..US$19 Million and net after tax income of US$4.25 Million...NNRF had 50% or $2.125 million in profit

3RD Q US $18.7 Million and net after tax income of USD 3.5 Million..NNRF s profit is $1.75 million..

fourth quarter revenue and income are expected to be similar to Q1 and Q2 results...so NNRF can expect to pull in $2.2-2.5 million for fourth Q

so NNRF can expect to record $6.75 million in profit for 2007...from the investment in Atoll...however they have an operation loss of about 7 million...i don t know how they will calculate some of the expences into the year end but i expect a loss of about $1.5-2 M total...or a loss of about 3-4 cents per share.

You have to remember any of the credit line or equity financing that get s converted to shares has to be expenced...you ll notice there is a conversion of Debt to equity in the last 10 QSB...so the loss for 2007 should be as of SEPT30 $7.2Ml plus about 350K per month or $8.5 mill on the year..NOT including any conversions in the oct-dec time period...but i expect that will be converted to equity as well..

Unless they record some income from the EP units witch i doubt..it might affect it..but going forward...you can realisticly calculate Atolls expected growth...with the shuffle in manegement and location Atoll is expected to gain some efficiencies and increased Revenue growth...in 2006 Atoll did $43,137,000 ..in 2007 i am expecting in the $75-78 million range and a total profit of $17-18 million...thats impressive growth 85 % plus..

SO assume they continue to grow at 85% you get around $140 million in 2008..with the changes made the total profit has to be in the $40 plus million range...NNRF s 50 % is 20 Mill

Assuming the operating expence dosn t change $350k per month times 12 months is $4.2 million(asssuming no stock based compensation or conversions) then just Atolls portion can pull in $16 million for NNRF profit alone..or .33 cents per share ...thats enoeghf to easily get Debt financing to make these acquisitions and that will further increase the revenues...

even 30 cents earnings in 2008 at a PE of 30 still makes NNRF a 9 dollar stock..you ve got to think 6 months ahead...thats why this visit to Russia by management is so important to NNRF..it will be the the product of many talks...

Gibber...i am being as conservative as i can...i am not going to be wreckless like Barry Davis and tell you NNRF is going to $35-$40 bucks by april...or $100-$200 by year end....thats foolishness...however fundementals can change the face of a company good or bad very quickly..lets see what this visit reveals first then we talk....