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IMF sees Iraq economy, oil output recovering

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18 January 2008 (Forbes)
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Iraq's economy is expected to find stability in 2008-2009 despite political and security problems as oil production recovers and the government moves ahead with reforms, the IMF said.

Mohsin Khan, director of the International Monetary Fund's Middle East and Central Asia department, said that Iraqi gross domestic product (GDP) growth would likely top seven percent this year and hold between 7 and 8 pct in 2009.

Oil production, which accounts for 70 pct of the war-ravaged country's GDP activity, is expected to increase 'at least' by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2008, he said in a news teleconference.

The IMF estimates Iraq produced two million bpd in 2006-2007.

Khan said the IMF's full-year 2007 forecast of 1.3 pct GDP growth for Iraq was based on non-oil data from the first six months and probably will be revised upward.

'There was an improvement in economic activity' in the second half of the year with an improvement in security, he said, citing 'anecdotal' evidence.

Oil production picked up in the fourth quarter and retail services are improving, he said.

'We're expecting a significant jump in growth,' he said.
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