Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[HailMary]

Revenue 598 662 740 967

Joe - I hope you are on to something here. What I really like is Q2 revenue would actually be up in your scenario due to higher k8 ASPs even though total units are down which is typical for Q2. If it worked out this way, I think the stock would get a nice boost.

Even more stunning would be if your Q4 prediction held true. Q403 was $581M with about 7M units. 3M more units would add about $100M to the costs, but your revenue increase is $386M YOY. That is $286M more profit for the chip group, for a total of $349M. That is approaching $.80/share just from that group. That ought to put the stock well over $50!!! If a flash recovery takes place as predicted, this could be stock of the year.

I'm currently not as optimistic as you, but I wouldn't call your prediction unreasonable. AMD has a great lineup for 2004, and as long as the markets cooperate, AMD has nowhere to go but up. I'm holding all my shares until at least Q4 earnings. I think we'll all be rewarded in due time.