* STRONG DEMAND KEEPS WORLD AMMONIA PRICES MOVING UP
* NOLA GRANULAR UREA BARGE PRICES DOWN SLIGHTLY
* HIGHER INPUT COSTS FIRM WORLD DAP PRICES
* POTASH PRICES STAY FIRM OVER THIN SUPPLIES
Fertilizer Price Board
(Dealer Reference: $/ston fob Warehouse or Pipeline)
Pricing Point Ammonia UAN Urea DAP Potash
($/Unit N) (Gran)
Minneapolis, Minn. 660 (N) + 10.00-50 -- 495 -- 615 (N) + 380 + *(N) (C)
Pt. Huron/Saginaw, Mich. 670 (N) + 10.70 -- 510 (N) + 570 (N) -- 335 (N) --
Lima/Toledo, Ohio 685+ 10.60 -- 500-05 + 565 (N) -- 350-60 --
Cincinnati, Ohio 680 (N) 10.50 -- 488 + 560 (N) -- 350 --
Huntingt./ Dunkirk, Ind. 665 -- 11.50 (N) + 510 -- 590 (N) -- 420 (N) --
Marseilles/Ottawa Ill. 665 (N) 12.00 + 485 + 585 -- 420-30 (N)--
Pekin, Ill. 665-70 + 11.50 + 470-75 + 575-90 + 430-35 +
Naples, Meredosia, Ill. 665 + 11.50 (N) + 470 (N) + 580 (N) + 375 --
Mt. Vernon, Ill., Henderson, Ky. 690 (N) + 11.00-15 + 510 -- 580 + 375 +
Dubuque, Clinton, Ia. 665 + 11.50 -- 465-80 + 590 + 420-30 (N) --
Burlington, Ia. 650 (N ) -- 11.65 + 480 + 610 + 425 +
Sioux City, Ia. 625 (N) 12.00 (N) -- 490 -- 585 (N) + NQ
Omaha, Neb. 625 + 12.00 (N) -- 490 -- 585 -- 400 +
St. Joseph , Mo. NQ 11.25 + 470 -- 570 + 400-410 +
St. Louis, Mo. 660 + 11.25 + 470 + 570 + 395-400 +
Caruthersville, Mo., Blythvlle, Ark. 590 + (F) 10.95 + 460 + 600-20 + 405-10 +
Tulsa, Okl. NQ 10.35-45 -- 450 (--) 590 (N) + 380*** +
Woodward /Enid, Okl. 530*** -- 10.35-45 -- 440 (N) -- NQ 350 (N)***(L) +
Memphis, Tenn. 570-75 + 10.95 + 450 -- 600-20 + 425 +
Vicksburg/Grenvle., Miss. 400 (AN) (N) + 11.25 + 455-65 + 615 + 430 --
Houston, Victoria, Tx., E. Tx. 575 (N)*** -- 10.30 +*** 465 -- 545-560 + NQ
Sterlington, Donaldsonville, La. 580 (N) *** + NQ 455*** -- (N) NQ NQ
New Orleans, La., Gulf Coast 414 + 10.95 + 425-35 (G) (--) 600-05* -- NQ
415 (P) (N) (--)
E. Coast, Ga. 425 (AN)(D) + 11.25 -- NQ NQ 395 --
Central Florida, U.S. Gulf 460-488 of which Tampa 460 (x) + NQ 570 (N)** NQ
Price Direction Indicators: + Higher; (--) Lower; -- No Change * Prompt Barge ** Rail Carloads *** Truckloads (C) FOB Canada (D) Delivered (F) fob Blytheville (H) low end-FOB, high end-Truck del. (AN) Ammonium Nitrate, fob (G) Granular (N) Nominal (L) FOB Carlsbad (P) Prilled (x) Tampa/ U.S. Gulf /mton (y) low end, ex barge-high end, ex warehouse (z) Low end -Rail del.- High end - ex Warehouse NQ No Quote
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AMMONIA – New Sales Continue Seasonally Slow; World Market Prices Move Higher
New sales of ammonia were seasonally slow over most of the Midwest this week. A few loads of ammonia moved to dealer storage in cen. Ill. at $665. Wholesalers in E. Mo., S.W. Ill. said supplies of ammonia were still tight. Demand was strong for ammonia moving to corn, cotton, milo preplant in cen., coastal bend, S.E. Tx.
Known/possible ammonia shipments ex Yuzhnyy for Jan. now stand at 325-365,000t; of that total there are two 35-40,000t and four 20-25,000t cargoes headed for U.S. gulf/Tampa. Prices continue to firm with news of sales out of the Gorlovka plant in Ukraine at just over $420 fob. Two lots of ammonia sold recently at around/just over $420 fob, the first a 25,000t lot likely destined for the U.S. That price is up $20 from previous week’s indication. U.S. gulf landed prices have increased further for 2nd half Jan. with new business at $488 cfr. PCS has now finalized the price of a half cargo of ammonia for 2nd half Jan. delivery to a major consumer in the Mississippi river at $488 cfr. There have finally been new indications of spot M.E. prices. Qafco/Qatar has sold 15,000t to Mitsui at $450 fob for 2nd half Feb. Today’s tender by FACT, India, demonstrates the much higher prices now being sought by suppliers, with bids ranging from $440 cfr up to $500 cfr, significantly higher than the levels in the $350’s cfr which still prevail for formula-based contract sales.
Price Outlook: Black Sea fob prices have firmed further this week, with new business at around $420. Based on typical freight rates, a level of $420 fob out of Yuzhnyy would imply a landed cost of at least $490 in Tampa. As noted, U.S. gulf landed prices have currently reached $488 cfr. The crisis in phos acid shipments from N. Africa to India (see DAP, below) will have significant repercussions on ammonia demand into India. If the crisis is resolved quickly, Indian demand levels for ammonia could stay normal and support current ammonia prices. Should the crisis draw out, however, a good deal of M.E. ammonia could become available to the market, creating downward price pressure until the ammonia finds its way to a new home. We look for world ammonia prices to run firm with undertone of strength, absent a collapse in Indian demand.
Domestic demand for ammonia remains seasonally slow but as with other forms of fertilizer high crop prices are supporting farmer ability to pay much higher input costs. We expect domestic ammonia prices to stay strong for the short term.
Dry N – NOLA Granular Prices Soften; World Prices Rebound Then Go Flat
Wholesalers in N., cen. Ohio are buying in urea sold to farmers under prepay arrangements. Urea is selling to wholesalers buying in prepay tons in W. Ill., E. Ia. Urea moved in moderate volume to dealer storage in N. La., cen. Miss.; wholesalers expect good movement for wheat topdress to start next week. NOLA granular urea barge prices moved lower this week dropping into high $420’s-low 430’s.
ConAgra has bought Chinese prills this week at $355 fob, granular at $370. ConAgra has two granular cargoes booked for Feb. and Mar. ship to W. coast U.S. Igsas, Turkey, is said bought 6-8,000t netting low-mid $390’s fob Yuzhnyy. Toros apparently faced prices of $440 cfr for fresh urea cargo but Transammonia is now said to be offering at closer to $435. Some think there may be sufficient urea purchased for now, others that another 50-75,000t could be secured for Jan. ship. Koch has sold a granular cargo ex Venezuela to Incofe, Mexico, for shipment to the E. coast with prompt loading. The price has been reported variously from $420 to $440 cfr. One of the Indian government import agencies, most likely STC, is expected to come to market checking again the possibilities of importing urea under long term contracts. IPL recently published figures to prove that it found no value to this as they succeeded in buying cheaper than what would have been contract prices agreed on formula from either Yuzhnyy or the M.E. according to published prices in Dec. A total of 887,469t urea arrived in India in Dec. including shipments from Omifco. This brings the total figure for the year to 6,664,068t. Namhae, S. Korea has purchased 100,000t Chinese granular urea for delivery during the 3Q following its tender on Jan. 8. The award is made to five companies at prices ranging from $410-440 cfr with higher prices for later shipments. Dongbu is in the market for 20,000t granular urea for Feb. del. but negotiations are still underway. Chinese granular urea is reported sold to Philippine buyers in the low $440’s cfr. Chinese prilled urea is offered at around $400 cfr. Urea prices have moved up dramatically in Yuzhnyy; following sales late last week into the $380’s, $395 traded and then IBE was reported sold cargo at $400. Late week tons however were again reported available at $395 fob, although some producers are still indicating prices at $400 and above. M.E. prices are suffering from the continued presence of Chinese exports which are continuing to undercut M.E. price aspirations in S.E. Asia. Should India come back to market, prices closer to $380 would be achievable rather than the $410 last quoted and possibly lower. Therefore, even though Yuzhnyy prices have improved, it seems M.E. prilled prices are set to trade at a discount. U.S. prices continue to trade at a premium despite the current softness. Koch loaded a part cargo in Dec. that was sold at $415, the highest price paid so far on a spot basis.
Price Outlook : Traders looking to cover urea shorts in Turkey and Nigeria triggered a $30 price hike in Yuzhnyy ending at $400. Since then, however, price ideas appear to have softened a little with $395 said to be doable once again. There is still concern these two countries cannot support the Yuzhnyy line up alone and similarly, the Baltic cannot rely on Europe alone. Some trades are now being reported from the Baltic to S. America but equally sales are still being lost to China on the W. coast and Venezuela has even provided an export cargo for Mexico, taking away another much needed E. coast sale. Baltic prices have rebounded from the $370-375 low reported last week with tons trading at $384-385, but price aspirations of $390 and above seem to be unworkable today. We expect world urea prices to run flat with undertone of softness in the short term. Domestic urea prices at NOLA fell slightly from their peaks as several imported cargoes are arriving into seasonally slow demand. Also some traders are willing to ask lower to get prices of contract cargoes lower as well. With world prices looking to move flat, domestic prices may stop rising so fast in the short term. Wheat topdress demand should be strong when it does get started, however, and while some price softness could creep in we do not expect a substantial drop in urea prices in the short or medium term.
UAN – Prices Firm Up Over Slow New Sales;
A few loads of UAN went to dealer storage in cen. Ill. Demand is heavy for UAN going to cotton, corn, milo preplant in cen., coastal bend, S.E. Tx.
Ameropa has purchased 17,000t UAN today from Egypt that has been fixed to load late Jan. for W. coast U.S.
Price Outlook : Prices for competing forms of N are still very strong and some wholesalers indicate UAN supplies are still thin. We expect domestic UAN prices to run steady to higher in the short term.
DAP – NOLA Barge Prices Leap to Over $600; World Export Prices Increase Sharply
Wholesalers in N., cen. Ohio are buying in DAP sold for prepay. Light volume DAP went into dealer storage in cen. Ill. Price for DAP barges at NOLA leapt to over $600 midweek.
PhosChem sold 6,000t DAP for Feb. ship into Cen. America and a further 6,000t to Mexico, both at $675 fob Tampa. An additional 6,000t DAP has been sold into Mexico at $685 fob Tampa also for Feb. loading. PhosChem has since increased its offer price to $700 fob. A trader has sold 5-8,000t U.S. DAP for Feb. ship into Cen. America. Traders are faced with paying $700 fob Tunisia for DAP shipments to French Atlantic ports, $720 fob to the Med. OCP, Morocco, has yet to confirm its price. So far traders are rejecting these prices; freight is reported at up to $30. DAP availability is tight in Germany amid continued surges in international prices. Business has been heard done at $680 fot and fresh offers are around $700. GCT, Tunisia, has put another massive increase on the table for Jan. DAP contracts into Italy, opening negotiations at $720 fob. Italian buyers have refused this opening price and negotiations are underway. GCT started the week saying its opening price was $700 and so maybe there is some room for maneuver. Even at $700 plus freight of $25 or higher however, buyers are still faced with a huge increase which they might not choose to take, lacking confidence in their ability to pass this price on to the final user. This week the Chinese government pledged to try and cap price increases for critical inputs such as fertilizers, stating that a rise in price will only be permitted to cover cost increases, and this once the issue has been reviewed by local regulators. However, if the domestic price is artificially capped this may only serve to increase the attractiveness of exports. Reports indicate that OCP/Morocco has declared force majeure on Feb./Mar. shipments of phos acid to India predominantly due to losses being incurred due to much higher sulfur costs. OCP and GCT/Tunisia had already told buyers that they will supply less tonnage during Jan. This could force India to enter the DAP import market earlier than usual to source import tons to cover the shortfall in domestic production. Pakistani importers have increased the DAP price this week to around $650 cfr so there is still some way to go before prices fall closer in line with where current workable cfr prices are. EuroChem, FSU, sold DAP for 1st half Jan. load at $580-600 fob and at $600 fob Baltic for the 2nd half. Chinese phosphate producers have moved up their fob prices for all products and DAP is now being priced at up to $720 fob.
Price Outlook : Although global demand remains firm and supply relatively tight, this latest jump in prices can be largely attributed to increased prices for raw materials such as phosphate rock, sulfur and ammonia. Indeed OCP and GCT have or soon will, declare force majeure on Feb./Mar. shipments of phos acid to India. Both had earlier instructed buyers they would supply less tonnage during Jan. When this happened previously in 1989, shipments stopped and India was forced into the DAP market to cover in lost domestic production. For the short term it appears world DAP market prices could continue to rise. Domestic DAP prices moved up sharply (again), both at NOLA and at interior terminals. High crop prices continue to support farmers ability to afford the higher fertilizer costs and we look for domestic DAP prices to keep moving up.
POTASH – Prices Rise Over Continued Seasonally Slow Sales
Light volume potash was sold to wholesalers in N., cen. Ohio covering prepay tons. A few loads of potash moved to dealer storage in cen. Ill. Supplies are still thin in W. Ill., E. Ia. Light volume potash went out for corn, cotton, milo preplant in N. La., cen. Miss.
Price Outlook: World demand for potash continues strong and export suppliers are all well placed. Several wholesalers also said supplies are still thin. Domestic potash prices seem likely to keep rising in the short term.
COMMODITIES
Corn prices firmed up slightly, gaining 10 ¢ to $4.75. Soybean prices eased, dropping 7¢ to $12.44. Slower than expected export demand sent wheat prices tumbling, going down 60¢ to $8.85. A late week sell-off sent cotton prices sharply lower, losing 1.79¢ to 66.96¢/lb.
Ken Johnson Midwest Fertilizer Insight Phone (334) 863-7761 Email: mwfert@teleclipse.net
DAP: Cost includes only cost of raw materials processing and co-generation credit. Ammonia: Gas cost in ammonia based on capacity weighted average efficiency for nine Louisiana ammonia plants x midweek close nearest natural gas future NYM exchange.
Selected World Market Prices ($/mton fob)
Ammonia Ammonia DAP DAP Urea Prilled Urea (Gran) Urea Gran) UAN (32%)
Date Yuzhnyy Caribbean Baltic Tampa Yuzhnyy Middle East
(For U.S.) Caribbean Yuzhnyy
1/14/08 400-420 420-440 700 (N) 675-685 380-400 376-425 375-427 330-335
1/7/08 380-400 410-420 540-550 575-610 370-379 382-432 380-427 339-340
12/24/07 360-400 410-420 540-550 575-610 380-385 382-432 385-427 339-340
* Revised ** Old Business (N) Nominal
Fertilizer Stock Prices
Company Thu 1/10 Prv Wk Change Indic Div Yield % P.E. High 52 week Low
Agrium 68.34 74.24 -5.90 .11 0.20 44 76.14 30.30
CF Holdings 110.68 115.84 -5.16 .08 0.10 25 119.44 26.95
Con Agra 23.92 23.26 +.66 .76 3.30 14 27.49 22.81
Mosaic 93.53 97.71 -4.18 NA NA 67 99.85 19.49
Potash Corp. 135.05 146.88 -11.83 .40 .30 47 151.90 45.31
Terra Industries 46.44 50.99 -4.55 NA NA 33 52.25 11.68
Terra Nitrogen 136.62 156.01 -19.39 8.40 6.20 16 159.46 31.83
Yara 51.94 46.56 + 5.38 NA NA NA 53.90 20.30
