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Friday, March 12, 2004 3:32:52 AM
(chipguy)<<Seeing as AMD is larger than Intel by the ratio 8/5 you mean?>>
HailMary <He wasn't talking about units. Q1 is seasonally down in revenue for both. His statement makes no assumption about how much unit market share is shifted.>
Well, not quite. I'm sure chipguys comment was tongue-in-shik anyway. But I started with my overall market share assumption, which is that when AMD has a lead in the performance race, they can gain 2% per quarter in unit market share.
For Q1, I am assuming AMD's market share in # of CPUs grows from 16.5% (Q4) to 18% (Q1) and continues to rise by 2%/quarter through at least Q4. (It would be 24% at that point.)
So that my itself would result in 9% more units being sold by AMD in Q1 and 2% fewer units by Intel.
But total units will drop by ~5%. I expect ASP to rise 1% for AMD and fall by 2% for Intel. AMD's rises mostly due to the greater proportion of K8 chips in its sales while Intel's falls because of no mainstream $600 desktop CPUs.
So, combining all the numbers to get CPU revenue change for AMD, we get 1.09*0.95*1.01, which gives a 5% gain in CPU revenues.
For Intel, 0.98*0.95*0.98, gives a 9% decline in CPU revenues, which is scraping the bottom of their recent guidance, but maybe Comm and more chipsets can keep it in the center of guidance.
Petz
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