Dendreon Corp fka DNDNQ

[bobrmd]

Forget about hazzard ratios and median survival. It is the absolute survival that matters. The median is just a number where half have died. The hazzard ratio is a guess at future events based on what happened so far.

The median is misleading. Say a trial has 200 patienets. 51/100 patients die in a month in both arms. Therafter alll are dead in the control group a month later. The remaining 49 in the treatment are cured. The medians are the same.

Hazzard ratio is not accurate where there is a tail or plateau on the survival curve. That is wahat appears to be happening in the survival curves with provenge. There is a rapid fall off in the curve (death Rate) then a flattening of the survival curve. The curves are not linear so the early hazzard ratio doesnt predict what happens later on.