Abet Chichi2

[bob3]

CDE:

From: raybiese 1/5/2008 1:04:06 AM
To: Woody who wrote (64823) of 64859

"I can't believe the heavy hand that is keeping CDE down .. a great example of the power of the dark side"

It looks like someone at the TSX sold some more Dec 15-31/07 going up 1.7 mil short (16.8 to 18.5) versus a 0.5 mil drop from Dec 1-15/07. The 'Top 20' comes out every 1/2 month.
http://www.tsx.com/en/pdf/ShortPositions_Dec31-2007.pdf
Weird stuff seems to happen with recent acquisitons being completed eg. (CDM.TO/CDE: Bolnisi and Palmarejo) & (YRI.TO/AUY: MNG.TO) probably due to arbitrage. I don't pretend to understand the nuances.
There is a call option overhang at $5/Jan08 so someone has a considerable interest in keeping it <$5 until Jan18th. The P/C ratio is nasty low (32.7% Dec30, 27.5% Dec21, if I calculated correctly). On the other hand, someone else has a considerable interest in getting it above $5 before Jan 18th.
So far this has been great fun to watch & suspect it will continue to be.
All just IMHO, mdm

OT/Disclosure: I am recently long a bit of CDM.TO/CDE (~2%) at $4-ish. I hate to admit it, but I just did it for fun. Just don't consider me a trader!! I just try look for "big value" with LT & VLT trend reversals, hold my breath, pull the trigger and watch for a while. ST timing really is usually bad and this has conditioned me with a high pain threshold. I fully expect to be whipsawed, diced, pickled, fried, inverted, rotated, mutilated and shredded like a hanging chad. This is just a fact of life.
But semi-seriously, I am north of the border and plodding along with retirement funds. So I gotta look at things happening in the US then 'divide by the $CDW'. C'est la vie... but OTOH when the MNG.TO-->YRI.TO deal completes, it'll be getting some Yamana at ~$2.41 basis from a LT hold of MNG.TO (~5%). With the strength of the Cdn$ over the last few years, decisions must be made from different trend charts, sector trends and company selections. For me, the $SPTGD did not 'break out' of it's 3 year (Jan/05 to Dec/07) downtrend channel until last week.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPTGD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78272272509
In fact, the $GOLD:$CDW did not rise above Feb07-Mar07 and July/06 peaks until Nov/07. It still hasn't broken above the May/06 peak.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$CDW&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19947403141
IMHO, the expodential action in the $HUI & $SPTGD in the past few days can only be explained by large scale short covering and 'new year' portfolio re-positioning. So far, the $SPTGD volumes haven't matched the Sept-Oct/07 levels in the recovery from the mid-Aug/07 sector haircut. I do not believe that 'public frenzy' is behind this ....at least not yet (although ETF physical gold holdings now exceeded many smaller countries). The Cdn & US economies are different yet intimately linked. As a 10 year trend, the price of gold is normally just a reflection of US dollar weakness and has been a wash in Cdn$. All except for a few major 'value' shifts, notably Q1-2001 to 1Q-2003 and Q4-2005 to mid-2006. The Cdn$ is small enough to be blown around by large international winds. (Similarly, the $WTIC:$CDW is holding it's up-trend channel but that's another day.) For me, the possible trend shift may be either a weakening of the Cdn$ in concert with the US$, may be a major LT 'value' shift or just a nasty whipsaw spike. My bets are for new highs for the $SPTGD/$HUI. The jury is still out.
mdm