High-yield/macroeconomics (fka YIELD)

[Preciouslife1]

Market Commentary

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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline below the 20-day moving average. The mid- range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 75.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.94 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.80 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.94. First support is today's low crossing at 75.73. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 75.64.

The March Euro closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 147.810 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 145.467 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 147.690. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147.810.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.721 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 145.467.

The March British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off November's high, the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1.9583 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.0022 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.9805 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.0022.
First support is today's low crossing at 1.9665 then the 75% retracement level crossing at 1.9583.

The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at .9165 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .8807 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at .9038. Second resistance is November's high crossing at .9165. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8826 then the 10-day moving average crossing at .8807.

The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews December's rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 103.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 102.55. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 103.83. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 100.33 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.03.

The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at .9235 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .8957 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at .9233. Second resistance is the December 4th high crossing at .9235. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at .9037 then the 20-day moving average crossing at .8990.

ENERGY MARKETS
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February crude oil closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking but not before spiking above $100 per barrel. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If February extends this week's rally, upside targets will be hard to project now that February is trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.75 would temper the near- term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at 100.09. First support is broken resistance marked by November's high crossing at 98.12. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.25.

February heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, upside targets will be hard to project now that February is trading into uncharted territory once again. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 259.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 274.75. First support is the 10- day moving average crossing at 264.29. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 259.77.

February unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally but remains above resistance marked by November's high crossing at 249.95. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. If February extends this week's rally, upside targets will be hard to project with February now trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 243.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 261.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 249.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 243.15.

February Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the reaction high crossing at 7.608. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 8.010 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7.980 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 8.010. First support is Wednesday's gap crossing at 7.540. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.373.

FOOD & FIBER
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March coffee posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline.
The mid- range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If March extends last week's rally, the 75% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 13.900 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 12.950 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extended yesterday's breakout above the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.83. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, December's high crossing at 21.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 20.22 would renew the decline off December's high and would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-January.

March sugar closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the previous reaction high crossing at 11.19 thereby renewing the rally off November's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be near. If March extends this week's rally, the 25% retracement level of the 2006-2007 decline crossing at 11.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.53 would confirm that a major top has been posted.

March cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 69.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 67.30 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

GRAINS
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March corn closed up 3 1/2-cents at 4.66.

March corn posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it extended this week's breakout above weekly resistance crossing at 4.59. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. This week's rally sets the stage for additional gains into the January's supply-demand report. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 1996-1997 decline crossing at 5.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.69 1/2 then monthly resistance crossing at 5.07. First support begins with Wednesday's gap crossing at 4.56 3/4 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.50 1/4.

March wheat closed up 30-cents at 9.45.

March wheat closed limit up for the second day in a row on Thursday and closed above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.29 3/4 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 9.52 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below today's gap crossing at 9.15 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in March wheat.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up 29 1/2-cents at 9.65 1/2.

March Kansas City Wheat closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.57 3/4 confirm that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 9.73 1/2 is the next upside target.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

March soybeans closed up 18 3/4-cents at 12.67 1/2.

March soybeans closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Thursday as it extended this winter's rally. The high- range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices ahead of the January supply-demand report are possible. If March extends this fall's rally, a test of the all-time high in soybeans posted in 1973 at 12.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.85 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March soybean meal closed up $6.50 at $350.60.

March soybean meal closed higher on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's rally and the high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends this fall's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 378.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 330.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March soybean oil closed up 38 pts. at 51.18.

March soybean oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends this winter's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Last month's breakout above the previous all-time high crossing at 49.40 has opened the door into uncharted territory making upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 47.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
The March NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2110.50 confirming that a short-term top has been posted.
The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 2021.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 2117.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

The March S&P 500 index closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 1446.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1511.00 would renew the rally off December's low.

The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline but remains below December's low crossing at 13,092. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 12,724 is the next downside target.
Closes above the reaction high crossing at 13,563 would renew the rally off November's low.

INTEREST RATES
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March T-bonds closed down 5/32's at 117-24

March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the reaction high crossing at 117-00. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extend this week's rally, November's high crossing at 118-27 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 116-03 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 117-31. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 118-27. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 116-03. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115-19.

LIVESTOCK
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February hogs closed down $0.70 at $56.47.

February hogs closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline below November's low crossing at 58.15. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If February extends this winter's decline, monthly support crossing at 53.55 is the next downside target.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance begins with the 10-day moving average crossing at 58.76 then last Friday's gap crossing at 59.25.
First support is today's low crossing at 56.40 then monthly support crossing at 53.55.

February bellies closed down $1.10 at $84.70.

February bellies closed lower on Thursday and below the 62% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 84.95. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If February extends the decline off November's high, the 75% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 82.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

February cattle closed down $1.47 at 94.77.

February cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.65 as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below December's low crossing at 94.52 would renew this winter's decline. Closes above today's high crossing at 96.92 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

March feeder cattle closed down $2.57 at $103.92.

March Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday and below December's low crossing at 104.65 thereby renewing this winter's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the decline off September's high, June's low crossing at 103.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 108.30 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.

PRECIOUS METALS
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February gold closed higher on Thursday as it extended yesterday's breakout above resistance marked by November's high crossing at 855.00. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 874.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 830.80 would signal that a double top with November's high has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 872.90 then weekly resistance crossing at 874.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 830.80 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 818.80.

March silver closed higher on Thursday and as it extends this week's rally and closed above the 62% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 15.411. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remains neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the 75% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 15.768 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.622 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 15.535 then the 75% retracement level crossing at 15.768. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.796 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.622.

March copper closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews December's rally, the 50% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 330.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 304.79 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 321.00 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 330.22. First support is Monday's low crossing at 302.20 then the reaction low crossing at 297.70.