The IPO Board

[MLD38]

Visa (V) & NCC as backdoor to V's IPO
(includes warning about NCC)

Visa: SEC filings
( see Prospectuses ; registration of securities ; etc )
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001403161&owner=include&count=40


11/9/2007: Credit card giant Visa (V) files for IPO ( No terms have been announced as of yet )
http://www.ipohome.com/marketwatch/iponews2.asp?article=6372
..In a move that had been anticipated for some time, leading credit card company Visa filed for an IPO with the SEC Friday. The deal will be underwritten by a team of 8 banks led by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. No terms have been announced as of yet....

Dec 25, 2007: Visa IPO Tantalizes Investors
SA Editor, Abbi Adest
http://seekingalpha.com/article/58325-imminent-visa-ipo-tantalizes-investors
includes:
...Things have been a bit bumpy lately for Visa, as reflected in its Friday disclosure that the company posted a loss in fiscal 2007. The company had a $1.1 billion operating loss, while operating revenue rose 33 percent to $5.2 billion. The loss included nearly $3 billion in reserve for outstanding litigation....
Abbi Adest includes this USAToday's Matt Krantz quote:
..."Just be careful before jumping into Visa stock. Since MasterCard did so well, there's going to be a mania for Visa shares. Make sure Visa's valuation is reasonable compared with MasterCard's before chasing it."...
Visa related:
At the bottom are links to "Further Reading on Seeking Alpha" entries:
Visa IPO Around The Corner
Visa IPO? Priceless
How To Profit From The Visa IPO Before It Goes Public?
Visa IPO Should Ring Up The Register

USAToday's Matt Krantz: "Do some homework before jumping into VISA IPO"
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/columnist/krantz/2007-11-26-visa-ipo_N.htm
More USAToday stories about Visa
http://www.usatoday.com/community/tags/topic.aspx?req=tag&tag=Visa

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re National City's (NCC) Visa holdings

Profit From The Visa IPO Before It Goes Public?
Discusses National City (NCC) owning 8% of Visa ... ie "a back door entry into the Visa IPO" ...
Post By Tate Dwinnell includes commentary, table, graph, etc (readers comments are at the very bottom)
http://selfinvestors.com/tradingstocks/ipos/profit-from-the-visa-ipo-before-it-goes-public/
Tate Dwinnell includes:
Conclusion
..."Keep in mind this is a strategy for profiting before the IPO. There will certainly be tremendous profit potential after the company IPO's. What I see happening is a tremendous build up to the launch of the IPO followed by some big time profit taking after the stock soars on the first day. Once the dust settles after a week or two, the stock will offer a tremendous opportunity to get in for the long haul.
Why?
Just look at the numbers:"...

National City : re Q & A on NCC's Visa holdings
Event Brief of Q3 2007 National City Earnings Conference Call - Final
http://insurancenewsnet.com/article.asp?n=1&neID=20071024560.2_4028071acd59fea5

National City Q & A at bottom of presentation: re Q & A on NCC's Visa holdings

Question from JILL HENNESSY:
..."In the Visa perspective, National City is highlighted as having an 8% stake in Visa U.S.A. How large of a gain do you expect to take on the Visa IPO and when do you expect to recognize that value?"...

Answer from PETER RASKIND:
..."Thanks, Jill. This is Peter. I will take that one as well. As a result of our issuance activity and our former ownership with MPC we do have an unusually large stake in the newly restructured Visa. As I suspect many of you are aware, Visa restructured in early October into an independent for-profit company with the ultimate intent of taking that company public. As a result of our approximately 8% share in Visa U.S.A, we end up with a share in the new Visa, the new worldwide Visa, somewhere between 4.5 and 5% of a good-sized entity.

There's quite a bit of discussion going on right now between the various banks involved and the SEC as to exactly how the accounting should occur for this transaction. And that is not yet fully resolved. So the restructuring has already occurred. There will be, we hope, resolution within the next several weeks by way of the SEC as to whether that restructuring creates an accounting event or not. But, even if it does not, there is an expectation that the company will go public some time next year and, therefore, presumably at that time a gain would be realized. I would not at all engage in speculation as to what the size of that gain is going to be yet today, but given the size of Visa and our stake in Visa, there's reason to believe that it will be sizable."...

WARNING re NCC stock:

Dec 17, 2007: National City's Dividend May Be at Risk
Downgrading NCC shares to Underperform (from Market Perform).
By Friedman Billings Ramsey
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB119790695146433947.html?mod=googlenews_barrons
Includes:
..."National City owns 8% of Visa, with no carrying value. Following Visa's first-quarter 2008 initial public offering, National City will incur a gain, which we estimate could total $2.4 billion, or approximately $3.75 per share ($2.63 per share if the gain is taxable)....
....A dividend cut increasingly likely. Although management has vocally supported its dividend, we expect that earnings will remain significantly below the 41-cents quarterly dividend through 2008. Further, with a dividend yield approaching 10%, the company is not being paid for its dividend....
...Based on actual third-quarter tangible book value, the unrealized Visa gain, and fourth-quarter losses, we estimate a tangible book value of approximately $15.50. Given the company's significant mortgage exposure, we are reducing our price target to $14, equal to 90% of tangible book."...


NCC 6 month chart:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NCC&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=b&p=m50,m20&a=vm,m26-12-9,r14&c=