Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>MNTA – I think what Jon may have been alluding to is assuming mnta is approved first, how do you discount the possibility that teva/amphastar (or someone else) isn't approved later?<

We can’t discount this entirely; however, if Sandoz/MNTA is approved first, I think the probability is high that their ANDA will be the only one ever approved. The higher this probability is, the less consequential a delayed competitor’s approval is in the valuation analysis.

I think the risk of an AG from SNY far outweighs the risk of a delayed approval for Teva or Amphastar. In case #1 in #msg-25373113, eliminating the risk of a delayed approval by another company (for the sake of argument) would raise my $57 figure by at most $1-2. In other words, it’s basically round-off error, IMO.