The Black Box

[wahz]

we've spent 5 months factoring a recession that won't occur. The ecris guys in last Fridays report said inflation is fine, the economy is slowing and the fed can keep easing. They haven't been wrong in the last 30 years that I recall.


The problem is that the only ones who have done well the last several years are the momentum crowd so fa doesn't matter in the short run and the short run has expanded to at least 6-9 months. Use akam as an example. Wacked in spring originally and growth never slowed as analysts expected. Has it rebounded? No, only from its lows.

I have read several times an analyst using some version of the word "psychotic" to describe stock movements of the last 6 weeks. I agree.

brcm is the 27's, cien down to 34 on a strong report because they lost a small amount in the subprime deal on a AAA rated piece of paper

Today the mortgage insurers AAA rating was reiterated. No reaction, because bond insureres are being put on "watch" status


there will be an excuse every day until by some miracle we rally.

the spx is holding 1460 a big deal for our ta friends. More importantly financials have now held in the same area for a week. the dollar is up, it turned in an obvious way as the financials MAY be doing right now