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Re: ombowstring post# 14574

Sunday, 12/16/2007 5:20:12 PM

Sunday, December 16, 2007 5:20:12 PM

Post# of 50849
OK, I have trouble tracking what I write where, and you have been a longterm contributor. So I'll give it a concise shot:
1) Low impact Ampakines in Alzheimer's would be for symptoms only, not changing disease course. There are other mechanisms out there (e.g. 5HT-6, nicotinics) with the same goal, no one knows which will be competitive. Thus I don't emphasize low impact Ampakines in AD in my valuation of Cortex, and I never have. High impacts, which would protect and maybe regenerate neurons, would slow the disease process in Alzheimer's. To do that with an oral therapy, not mess with the immune system, and slow AD--would be huge--if they can do it safely. But they are a year away from the clinic with that.
2) The value of Cortex rests in its Ampa modulation technology and the chemical platform they have developed. The low impacts, which for the moment should be considered cognitive enhancers, have applicability to schizophrenia and ADHD, maybe depression. But so do other mechanisms, including mGluR modulators. The RD indication has the advantage of having little competition--if any--and Ampa modulation may have a unique role in regulating respiration. A clear track for Cortex.

But while those elements themselves would justify a much larger market cap, the big unknown is the high-impact platform. If it can neuroprotect and regenerate, as Lilly's data indicated, that could be huge for Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, Huntington's, stroke, TBI, some orphans... But it remains to be seen if it will work in humans as in rodents, and if it can do so safely. So that's where the starry eyed forecasts sometimes arise from, but it's also where plenty of rational skepticism can be found. It remains to be seen.

I do not know of another mechanism of action with this range of undertreated potential indications, possible magnitude of clinical effect, where the major programs are contained within 3-4 companies, and one of those companies has Cortex's patent position (a lasting one with the chemistry, a temporary one with the uses).

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