Whose Best?
Well, first of all, these contests are about LEARNING - first and foremost. But, at some point, even apart from anecdotal evidence on the VMC board, it is good to determine who the best stockpickers and traders are so that we can (duh) leach off them - either by purchasing their picks or accepting their DD for a basis to make our own decisions.
I decided that I have a formula for doing this, but it doesn't kick in until after PSL10.
I'm prepared to say, after PSL10, that the top-5 cumulative [(rank + rating)/2] are better stock pickers and traders than the bottom-5. AND, for each additional PSL, I would add one more. So, that after PSL11, the top-6 are better than the bottom-6, etc.
Some would argue that you should be able to draw conclusions long before then, but I think being conservative is preferable for numerous reasons - not the least of which is that it is still only 6 stocks per contest and only 3.5 months per contest.
Besides, a lot can happen between PSL7 and PSL10. Here's a good example.... 2Morrowsgains.
Through the first 4 PSL's 2Morrowsgains had an average rank of 52.3 which was in the bottom 10. However, in his last three PSL's, he has an average ranking of 15.3 - which is in the top 5 for that period. Consequently, his overall average rank is now #25! His example should encourage anybody who has had a tough time to date.
Besides all that, since an important part of the PSL contests is LEARNING, it only makes sense that a person can get better. Not all of us have been investing our whole lives in microcaps. And, besides that, in the scheme of things, VMC is still embryonic.
So, FWIW, I'm not drawing any "official" conclusions about who is "better" until PSL10 - and even then, only at the extremes.
Len
Warren Buffet: 5 minutes and 17 seconds of pure, unadulterated, bulletproof, flawless logic.
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