Value Microcaps Pick Six Lotto 07

[lentinman]

KIK-WYO PHENOMENON:

I listed the top-40 over all contests by both Average Rank and Average Return some posts back. I followed that with arguments for and against one versus the other. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25325413 Here is a more specific example.

Obviously, if a person is #1 in one, they would likely be relatively high in the other and vice versa. It wouldn't even be surprising if the same person were first in both. In this case KnowledgeIsKing is first in average return, Wyobuford is first in average rank.

Being a statistician, and recognizing that this covers a number of contests, I would be inclined to bet heavily that if KIK is first in average percentage, he would be no worse than 7th in average rank. If WYO is first in average rank, he would be no worse than 7th in average percentage.

Amazingly, KIK is first in average percentage, but 16th in average rank! Even more amazing, WYO is first in average rank and (believe it or not) 16th in average percentage! What does this mean?

Well, basically it means that KIK's ranks have been extremes and he's coupled that with the second biggest percentage in any PSL contest. Conversely, WYO hasn't had any huge percentage gains, but has been extremely consistent in terms of his ranking.

To simplify the anomaly, here are the last 4 contests. As you can see KIK's average return is considerably better than WYO's, but WYO's average rank is considerably better than KIK's.

KIK 
 ----  PSL4  PSL5  PSL6  PSL7 
 PCT    44%  155%  -16%  -10%  AVG PCT  43% 
 RANK    5     2    72    64   AVG RANK 36

WYO 
 ----  PSL4  PSL5  PSL6  PSL7 
 PCT    43%   44%   20%   19%  AVG PCT  32% 
 RANK    7    15     9    23   AVG RANK 14

This is a good example of why it is difficult to say which of the two lists is the better one. Thus, I have provided both.

Len