Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[jakedogman1]

You would think that SK would be on the phone pleading for a break from these folks to release data. One other theory I have is mgmt has a partnership deal in the wings and with the recent news, combined with tax loss selling, a partner could get a bunch of shares below wholesale.

Assuming the cash and AVID are worth $.25 per share, the following numbers value the rest of the package ie Bavi, cotara and other intell property.

PPS Value of other assets less cash and AVID

$.30 --- $.05 --- $11.5 mil
$.35 --- $.10 --- $22.6 mil
$.40 --- $.15 --- $33.9 mil
$.45 --- $.20 --- $45.2 mil
$.50 --- $.25 --- $56.5 mil
$1.00 --- $.75 --- $169 mil

Now the question I ask myself and have posed to mgmt recently (when pps was in the $.60s), "can you sell the company for more than where the pps is trading?" Their answer has been of course and I agree. Given that the 50 to 60 biotech buyouts have averaged over $500 mil for companies with perhaps lessor pipelines (per recent WSJ article) or less blockbuster potential than bavi, my guess is mgmt could get $169 mil pretty easily for all the pipeline.

Let the sky fall Monday. I have a little powder left.