Apple (AAPL) shares have set a another all-time high today, with a modest assist fromCaris & Co.’s Shebly Seyrafi, who raised his price target on the shares to $225 from $215.
Seyrafi says field checks find that the company is seeing a mix shift to higher margin iPod Touch and Nanos. He also notes that NAND prices have dropped 30% since the company provided guidance on October 22. Seyrafi upped his estimates for the fiscal first quarter ending December to $9.4 billion in revenue and $1.67 a share, from $9.2 billion and $1.58. (Consensus is $9.3 billion and $1.54.) Nonetheless, Seyrafi actually is reducing his iPod unit estimate for the quarter to 25 million from 26 million to reflect increased concerns about consumer spending.
Seyrafi notes that Apple had advised the Street to expect gross margin in the quarter to drop to 31% from 33.6% on higher component costs; but he says it will be “much higher” than the forecast level due to sharp NAND flash memory declines and the mix shift to the Touch. He’s modelling 34.2% gross margins for the quarter.
Seyrafi raises estimates going forward: he now sees EPS for the 2008, 2009 and 2010 fiscal years at $5.39, $6.26 and $7.05, respectively. He had been at $5.21, 6.10 and $6.88.
Apple today is up $2.01, or 1%, at $196.22. The stock now has a market cap of $171.8 billion; for a little perspective, that is almost exactly equal to the current value of Citigroup (C), at $171.85 billion.
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