Thursday, December 06, 2007 11:41:43 AM
Nosleep, on the defy logic post, I'm thinking you might be my twin, lol. I'm also 36 and I've been investing discretionary money for about the same length of time.
I'm also down some, but I've taken profits on some doubles and triples along the way that have really helped me out.
I share your confusion for the most part. A few points to consider:
1) Remember that not all small companies with large pounds in the ground will actually own and run the subsequent mine. The idea is to prove up the resource and then get bought out by a larger junior or a major in some cases. This is a key point to consider when you look at the potential massive financials to get a mine started. These small companies would have to dilute themselves into oblivion to start the mine themselves in some cases, not all are concerned about actually mining the resource.
2)How can metal prices be falling? Well, every coin has 2 sides, and where there is panic there is opportunity. The financial crisis we are in is going to get exponentially worse imo, and a lot of money players know this. Cash will be king and anything of value will be thrown out or given away at discount indiscriminately, much like Aug 16th. I think we are seeing a long lasting residual from that capitualtion day, almost like after shocks from an earthquake. There are a lot of scared big money players out there that don't want to jump in to JM's or the specs.
3) Metal prices are going to suffer during this financial meltdown, as will almost every sector. Few people are going to have the hindsight, balls or the available attention to pick up on what is becoming a great opportunity in metals, because they are staring down the barrel of what a world wide recession will do. I guess what I'm trying to say is that if you pull up to your house, and it's on fire, what items do you take when you know you can't take all of your valuables? There are going to be valuables left behind. Luckily for us, metals don't burn too easily
. In all seriousness, there may be some truth to this fact, metals ARE necessary for every economy, the big players know that they can divert there attention away from it because it will be there when the decide they can come back to them, make sense?
4) It's hard to know who to beleive, that's for sure. I tend to believe Jim Willie, Adam Hamilton, Murphy, and a few others.
5) Huge funding problems are an issue, the rising cost of energy has had a large impact. Here's a brain teaser on the concept of $200 oil. What happens when the cost of oil is too expensive for public companies to extract and ship it for profit? This was starting to happen at near $100 oil for some truckers in the US. I think that the government would then step it to privately run and regulate the entire oil recover and delivery process, from pillar to post. That's a scary thought as well, and yet, I would also submit that this has been the govt's 'secret' goal for decades, to run big oil in the US, some say they already do (Haliburton).
6) Metals 'should' come back around in the years that follow from now for the reasons you have stated on supply. Even when the China bubble bursts, we still have India's growing demand. By the time India has a bubble, China will have recovered.
7) One area that may break away from all this chaos is Uranium. It's an alternate energy, has a real and tangible shortage, and one key difference: You can't interrupt the daily operations of a working nuclear reactor due to uranium supply issues. It's not a case of shutting down the plant for a few weeks until the yellowcake arrives, the Ux has to be there. With all the new reactors being planned in the next 10 to 15 years, billions of dollars worth of construction, they will simply need to opearate based on a consistent supply, which we currently don't have.
8) I don't think you post at smartinvestments.ca, with your permission, I'd like to submit your post to that board for other responses. Let me know.
sp71
I'm also down some, but I've taken profits on some doubles and triples along the way that have really helped me out.
I share your confusion for the most part. A few points to consider:
1) Remember that not all small companies with large pounds in the ground will actually own and run the subsequent mine. The idea is to prove up the resource and then get bought out by a larger junior or a major in some cases. This is a key point to consider when you look at the potential massive financials to get a mine started. These small companies would have to dilute themselves into oblivion to start the mine themselves in some cases, not all are concerned about actually mining the resource.
2)How can metal prices be falling? Well, every coin has 2 sides, and where there is panic there is opportunity. The financial crisis we are in is going to get exponentially worse imo, and a lot of money players know this. Cash will be king and anything of value will be thrown out or given away at discount indiscriminately, much like Aug 16th. I think we are seeing a long lasting residual from that capitualtion day, almost like after shocks from an earthquake. There are a lot of scared big money players out there that don't want to jump in to JM's or the specs.
3) Metal prices are going to suffer during this financial meltdown, as will almost every sector. Few people are going to have the hindsight, balls or the available attention to pick up on what is becoming a great opportunity in metals, because they are staring down the barrel of what a world wide recession will do. I guess what I'm trying to say is that if you pull up to your house, and it's on fire, what items do you take when you know you can't take all of your valuables? There are going to be valuables left behind. Luckily for us, metals don't burn too easily
. In all seriousness, there may be some truth to this fact, metals ARE necessary for every economy, the big players know that they can divert there attention away from it because it will be there when the decide they can come back to them, make sense? 4) It's hard to know who to beleive, that's for sure. I tend to believe Jim Willie, Adam Hamilton, Murphy, and a few others.
5) Huge funding problems are an issue, the rising cost of energy has had a large impact. Here's a brain teaser on the concept of $200 oil. What happens when the cost of oil is too expensive for public companies to extract and ship it for profit? This was starting to happen at near $100 oil for some truckers in the US. I think that the government would then step it to privately run and regulate the entire oil recover and delivery process, from pillar to post. That's a scary thought as well, and yet, I would also submit that this has been the govt's 'secret' goal for decades, to run big oil in the US, some say they already do (Haliburton).
6) Metals 'should' come back around in the years that follow from now for the reasons you have stated on supply. Even when the China bubble bursts, we still have India's growing demand. By the time India has a bubble, China will have recovered.
7) One area that may break away from all this chaos is Uranium. It's an alternate energy, has a real and tangible shortage, and one key difference: You can't interrupt the daily operations of a working nuclear reactor due to uranium supply issues. It's not a case of shutting down the plant for a few weeks until the yellowcake arrives, the Ux has to be there. With all the new reactors being planned in the next 10 to 15 years, billions of dollars worth of construction, they will simply need to opearate based on a consistent supply, which we currently don't have.
8) I don't think you post at smartinvestments.ca, with your permission, I'd like to submit your post to that board for other responses. Let me know.
sp71
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