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[ThatHawaiiGuy]

I was a bull but it turned out bear and I was full of bull...or something like that...

MARKET TRENDS: Why the Market Itself is the Premier Pundit

I'm not one for making predictions. Yet I admit, I love to know what others
forecast.

On October 22, 2000, I asked hundreds of Mav Poll recipients where they
thought the Nasdaq would end the year. At that time, the tech-laden index
sat at 3483.

33%, or 1/3 of respondents, expected a year-end close of Nasdaq 4000.
Another 17% called for 4500 and 3% predicted 5000. In other words, more than
half (50%) of all participants felt that we'd see a year-end bull market
rally anywhere between 500 and 1500 points.

Today, about five weeks after the poll, the Nasdaq has been trading in the
2600's and 2700's. Incidentally, less than 10% of respondents felt the index
would close the year below 3000.

Granted, few expected to see so many earnings disappointments. And surely,
nobody could have guessed the highly contentious presidential battle.

Nevertheless, a quick gander at the Nasdaq trend chart and corresponding
info tells every investor a few details about what the market itself thinks.
Since September 8, for instance, the Nasdaq has traded more than 20% off its
mid-March high.

More telling, the Nasdaq fell below its long-term trendline on September 11
and received my red flag. That wasn't a prediction; rather, an indication
that technology had strong enough downward pressure to warrant the raising
of cash and the lowering of tech holdings.

See the trend charts for yourself!
http://www.fabian.com/tools/trending/home.html