Re trp-p8: I think the last bit of real good news on it was about five years ago. So, if you add up the days in five years, you get:
366 + (365 x 4) = 1826 days
Then, add 1/1826 for each day starting tomorrow, so the chance in the next month of any good news on trp-p8, by my calculations, would be 30/1826 or 1.6%.
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