Dendreon Corp fka DNDNQ

[walldiver]

9901 was a much smaller trial--only 127 patients. Your chances of hitting stat sig at the interim are much higher for 9902B, which has slightly more than 500 patients. However, if the interim look happens on 11/6/08 (probably around the 180th death), then only approx 60% of the patients in the trial will have been enrolled for over 24 months, and 75% enrolled for at least 20 months. The more recent enrollees tend to muck up the data, since the ones still alive at that point get tallied up for however many months they've been enrolled. So, it's tougher for the Provenge survival curve to gain separation from the control curve, as there usually is a bigger difference in the two curves from the 30-month point and on.