I never post here because I ask myself why would anyone care what I think. It is true that I am up over 100% this year, but it primarily because of UVE, trading you guys’ Chinese stocks on the upside and FXI puts on the down side. However, it is the day after Thanksgiving and I am bored so I am going to make some predictions.
First I believe we are one big reversal day away from the greatest buying opportunity since UVIH @ .12 or was it .04 or was it .57 who knows.
I live in a world with very wealthy people. They do not represent the average American, but they do represent the people who have driven this economy for the last four or five years. They are my friends, but I am no where near their affluence levels. Anyway, they own their own homes. They have been sure that their children have not taken out subprime loans. They are doctors, insurance agents, textile brokers (can you believe it?), bankers, inheritors, etc. These people continue to experience incredible incomes for many reasons, but none greater than Bush’s tax cuts. This is not a political post just a fact. They are going to spend freely at Christmas. For the most part they do not currently care about the value of the dollar except when they travel. Is any of this fair when compared to Rogue’s and other’s posts? Of course not, but I am here to make money and whether or not my observations will affect your performance is up to you to decide.
Anyway I believe the market will work higher and perhaps a lot higher until the wealthy in this country begin to anticipate a real hit to their pocket books. When will this be? I believe it will be just prior to or just after the next election. It looks to me and others I trust, that whoever is elected will change tax policy. The upper marginal tax rate will be increased. The tax on dividends and capital gains may be increased. This will have an immense impact on the psychology of the wealthy.
My plan is to be 100% invested until next August. Today I bought a lot of FXI puts at the close in anticipation of the FXI going to 150 before the Fed moves next. If I make any profit on this idea it will go back into what was working before this correction. China, domestic micro caps, oil service (wow FTK). Probably will not buy anymore UVE as I own 70K now. Late next summer and early fall I intend to sell everything and use 25% of my net worth to short the biggest winners.
What was any of this worth? It gave me something to do before going jogging. Good luck and great trading everyone. Oh, and thank you all for all you have done for me and my family. Finally, if I am wrong, I am going to have to go back to work. Ouch. Dan
AI
