Euro has risen absolutely too high. Of course we have some benefit from it by not paying so much for the oil, but if the German exporters (autos, machinery, pharmaceuticals) and their engineers cannot compete now with prices versus mainly USA, Japan and South Korea, but more and more versus the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries, so what's then left? I think with this level of Euro, Germany cannot compete for long. But for how long - one quarter, one year, 2 years? Complainments of thinning orderbooks have already been issued from manufacturers towards the Central Bank.
There are serious troubles between workers and the governement in France, and the troubles are beginning to spread all over Europe, also to the private sectors. People = workers do not like globalization (which takes their jobs) like their leaders do. Belgium is in danger to split in two countries: the flames and the vallons - imagine that: the founder and the home of the European Parliament is splitting apart on base of fundamental disagreement about the European Union.
Uniting 15-23 countries to support unanimously important decisions for Europe seems impossible. Countries with very different backgrounds, who have been independent from each others for hundreds of years, think very differently of many many things. I think it will finally end as a good try, and the European Union will remain as a bunch of states, where everybody looks after its own benefits, and no consensus in really important questions is even tried to achieve (maybe the propelheads in the European Commission will go on trying, heh). Consensus can be reached in minor questions ("how long are the cucumbres allowed to grow in the European Union area" and such LOL)
The change in text of the European Constitution, where the "unanimosity" was ment to be changed to "majority" in decision making, has raised a storm of protesting from the smaller countries, so no Constitution yet after 25 years of trying. For me, it seems even more unpossible in the future.
Welcome to the Potemkin Village. Europe will keep up with the Jones'es!
So how long will Euro stay in these heights? I have a feeling that it will for short time reach 1.50, but the slide quickly back - everybody knows it is already too high now. Everything seems to happen in faster and faster cyckles in today's economics - is it because of faster information or have the economists learned something from the past, learned how to fasten or shorten the economic cycles, or avoid some phases of the cycle in all?
In their economic growth the BRIC countries have the privilege of learning from the older ones, so their growth can be really fast. Will they learn remains to be seen.
AI
