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Tuesday, 01/15/2002 11:10:05 AM

Tuesday, January 15, 2002 11:10:05 AM

Post# of 1718
The NEXT Bubble....

An excerpt from an ABCNEWS.COM article....

It's All in the Timing
The next boom is on; make no mistake about it. You can't see it yet, but you can feel the rumblings beneath your feet. And, remarkably enough, given the grief we've been through in the last two years, it looks as though high tech will be the first sector to come out of the slump.
If I'm right, and you want to make money of the next high-tech expansion, then you are already running out of time. Here's how I see it: The people who will make billions on the next upturn invested in 2001 ? mostly as key investors or founders of new companies that will be the corporate stars of the next four years.
The people who will make millions will invest this year ? as low-level investors in early stage start-ups, senior executives at those firms, or major participants in well-targeted venture capital funds.
And the people who will make hundreds of thousands of dollars in the next boom will invest ? mostly in publicly traded stock or as recipients of employee stock options ? in 2003.
Those who will lose money on the next boom, just like last time, will be those who spend their money on already over-publicized and peaked-out tech stocks in 2004 and 2005. They will be the ones left holding the bag during the next shake-out.
Pick Your Targets
Everything I just said is meaningless unless you pick the right company to work for or invest in. One thing is for certain: none of the hot companies of the last boom will be the big plays in the next one. It never, ever works that way in tech. Rather, the hot companies will be the ones you haven't yet even heard of.
But that doesn't mean you can't find them, if you know where to look. Here are my best guesses from where the next superstars will emerge:
Real Time Computing. America's corporations are going to spend an estimated $1 trillion in the next 10 years revamping their entire IT operations to become highly interactive, instantaneous and pervasive. They're calling it Real Time Enterprise Computing and scores of companies, from Microsoft to dozens of new start-ups, are trying to stake a place in supplying it.
Dynamic Equilibrium. Dean Kamen's Segway is a glimpse of a whole world of new products that will use microprocessors and sensors to help digital products interact with the analog world. Think of machines that adapt to changing circumstances, fix themselves and respond to human interaction. Also think of the component companies that will supply the parts for these machines.
Visual Technologies. With universal broadband waiting in the wings, the Internet is going to go increasingly visual as movies, images, television, games, etc. migrate onto the Web. This will require new cameras, software, search and presentational tools and servers and routers to work. Also, as all traditional media begin to merge into a single, monolithic, Web-driven entertainment medium, whole new forms of content will emerge that we can't imagine.
Biochips. This will come later, but the company that figures out how to grow circuits or manage fast data input/output into DNA will be the next Intel.
Internet II. You may think the e-commerce revolution died with the Pets.com sock, but in fact it has just begun. E-commerce kept growing all through the bust ? and when the second generation of the Internet (broadband, wireless, real-time everywhere, visual) comes along in the next couple years, retailing on the Net will actually work. Think full-motion catalogs, virtual test drives, pay-per-view Web movies and you can see how huge this is going to be.
There. I feel better now. Can you see now why I couldn't say it all in 120 seconds?
Michael S. Malone, once called "the Boswell of Silicon Valley," is editor-at-large of Forbes ASAP magazine. His work as the nation's first daily high-tech reporter at the San Jose Mercury-News sparked the writing of his critically acclaimed The Big Score: The Billion Dollar Story of Silicon Valley, which went on to become a public TV series. He has written several other highly praised business books and a novel about Silicon Valley, where he was raised. For more, go to Forbes.com. And you can talk back to Silicon Insider via e-mail.

For the complete article...

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/SiliconInsider/SiliconInsider_020115.html




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