The Contrarian

[aim hier]

Okay, I'm convinced, the U.S. is entering a recession. I'm joining the crowd (maybe I'm the last to switch to the concensus, before the contrarian rebound). The continued stock slide, as well as what isn't being said, have convinced me. It's ironic that Bush 43 will be leaving office with an election year recession like his father, though at least he's not running for reelection. Even if the recession is shallow, the Democrats' chances of gaining complete control of both the executive and legislative branches has to be approaching certainty. I don't see bank managements defending their stocks after an almost unprecedented decline, the Fed is openly reluctant to lower interest rate furthers (perhaps unable to do so, by the dollar's weakness).

Is there a silver lining? In 2009 and 2010, we'll probably have a strong bull market, hope I still have some powder dry at that time. Cash is piling up on the sidelines. With folks not buying homes, their disposable cash income is rising rapidly, and consumer debt is going to be liquidated (for most people, not those with ARMS that will be reset). As bad as things look, the future is likely rosier than now appears.