Sunday, November 11, 2007 12:20:27 PM
The current analyst consensus is for $345 million in revenue(which we will undoubtedly surpass) and 440 million for '08. At our current price of $13, we are trading at less than 3x trailing sales and only 2x forward sales!
GIL = 5.25x sales
UA = 4.2x sales
CROX = 4.1x sales (even after recent 40%+ decline)
DECK = 4.5x sales
And don't even ask about LULU which is probably the closest comparison!
Our '08 sales will grow at at least 35% but likely more as retail sales become a greater percentage of sales compared to wholesale, margins expand, same store sales grow over 20%, and we open 20-25 new stores. (Retail sales are growing at a rate of more than 50%)
We're expanding faster, have better same store sales, and have a hotter brand than almost anyone in the industry. With store expansion happening all over the world, namely Canada, we can also benefit from the weak dollar. A fair valuation could very likely give us a double from here in a short period of time.
$26/share gives us a mkt cap of $1.77B, still just 4x forward sales.
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