Have to agree on PBG, Bobwins!
Been awhile since posting, been busy elsewhere and have kept only two oils for awhile. (And, yes John, i see your posts and appreciate them. Will buy you a beer if I ever get up to the northland.)
PBG is my secone biggest position to POT Leaps. Have had it since $8.57 and am adding to it Mon. By the way, Tackler, you looked at SUF a while back and it has since gone through a Gunnerman removal and is ready for process confirmation in the near future. Might be worth another look.
DrBob follows and knows more about PBG than anyone I know.
This is his post on SI:
*** My take on PBG.TO's Qtr Rept:
What strikes me is that they are no longer being conservative in their description of THAI:
"THAI(TM) is a field-proven technology that will be deployed globally.
"The activities are now at the stage where we expect to have a pipeline of licensing opportunities and projects for the implementation of THAI(TM) on a global basis."
Thus, Petrobank Energy is now saying to the world unequivocally that THAI works and they are going to be JV'ing it all over the world. Duvernay is just the beginning.
They also state:
"Petrobank's wholly-owned subsidiary, Archon Technologies Ltd. ("Archon"), has also been actively evaluating the acquisition and development of several new technologies and innovations around the base THAI(TM) and CAPRI(TM) technologies to capture the full commercial benefits of a THAI(TM) project.
These technologies are in the areas of sulfur recovery, innovative additional surface upgrading processes, produced water processing, oxygen enriched air injection to increase combustion efficiency, CO2 capture, and heat recovery for power generation.
Archon has its own research and development facilities in Calgary and a full time staff of researchers who also perform fluids and gas analysis for the current WHITESANDS project. We operate the only three dimensional combustion reactors in the world capable of evaluating the combustion properties of any oil.
Archon is building a portfolio of technologies to provide an integrated solution designed to maximize the overall efficiency and economics of a THAI(TM)/CAPRI(TM) project. Archon is also the vehicle for licensing any of the technology or intellectual property to third parties."
Thus, other companies that may try to replicate PBG's patented THAI process, will have the disadvantage of not knowing these associated technologies and techniques and methods that maximize THAI or THAI-like processes.
So other companies can try to re-invent the wheel so to speak, at their own added expense, lower efficiencies, and time-delays and frustrations, or they can negotiate with PBG and get it right the first time.
And if they try to duplicate THAI in the U.S., Canada, or Venezuela, where it is patented, they will get their butts sued.
In terms of other aspects of the report, the EPS of .25/share is pretty good, as it shows that PBG has great leverage with every additional 1,000 bbl/day production.
Cash flow is increasing quickly now and when Whitesands is no longer just capitalized accounting-wise, but gets to be included as part of the regular revenues and income, it will make a big difference to the bottom line.
As will the time when the reserves are stated in THAI terms instead of SAGD.
Arguably the most important event for Petrobank Energy in terms of a company-maker, is the expected announcement in 2-3 months that they have reached steady state, which will include actual optimal production numbers of around 1,000 bbls/day of oil per well and upgraded bitumen to perhaps 15-20 degrees API, and that is without CAPRI.
This much-anticipated announcement will blow the socks off of the heavy oil and oil industry because it will prove the enormous commerciality of THAI and engender serious interest from major oil companies to JV with PBG, and start some of them to think about acquiring PBG.
I would not want to be a non-shareholder of PBG.TO when this occurs, and it, steady state, could occur in late December or January.
Of course there are other price catalysts for PBG such as more drill results from Petrominerales Energy and further increases in Bakken production.
Technically, PBG tested the low 49 area and could firm up on Monday and rally next week to test its ATH 54.10, with a 6 handle in its sights in the near future. I expect one or more broker-dealers to up their target to $60 next week.
PMG was a little weak today as well but has had a big run and is pausing to refresh, before it takes off again to test its ATH 20.76 in late November or December.
Sure am glad I bought more PBG shares today, Friday, and this week, on every dip, so now I am overweighted in PBG vs. PMG shares, and am very overweighted in those two vis-a-vis my overall portfolio.
jmho,
drbob
