Novavax Inc (NVAX)

[GoodRAM]

Trendline penetration?

I have proposed a tantalizing proposition that the lack of information from NVAV management may be the result of a power struggle between Dennis O'Donnel and Howard Simms. It seems that Simms has won. See: http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077111&tid=nox&sid=7077....

Technical analysis, in my view, can provide very useful insight into the psychology of the market, when used in conjunction with with fundamantal analysis, i.e. the chart constitutes an accurate poll of the most recent investor sentiment regarding company fundamentals. The poll question, however, is never obvious. ;)

Now, let's test my proposition that investors believe that Howard Simms has won a power struggle that will make NVAX more transparent, which will add shareholder value. Here is the Price Volume Chart for 2/20:



On the bottom of this chart is an "almost" completed clockwise buy loop, ending 12/31/2003. This constituted a buy signal (IMHO), and I put my "trading shares" on the line.

The P/V chart shows indecision starting 1/29, which is the start of the green portion of the upper loop. A bullish clockwise rotation continues after 1/27, which is the end of the green portion of the loop.

The pattern reverses along a trendline, throught the orange portion of the chart. Decreasing volume and decreasing price keeps the buy signal in tact. We have a completed clockwise loop with the orange portion, which is not a classic buy loop - it is a bullish continuation loop.

After a price and volume reversal, the chart continues a bullish rotation along the trendline, as demonstrated by the yellow segments of the chart (2/13 to 2/19).

Today's action is in red. Looks like the trend line has been penetrated. Very bullish!!

As far as traditional TA, here is a candlestick chart:

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We are trading above the 50 SMA and 200SMA, which is bullish. If we stay above those levels, some NVAX institutional holders will stay happy, according to my estimation.

With today's close, the price is at the upper end of a channel. We have a bullish hammer formation on the candlestick chart, with today's close.

We do not have confirmation of penetration of 6.3 resistance. This will happen Monday, IMHO. Long time commin'.

I'd buy on open Monday a.m.