Thoughts on strategies to profit from likely events?
The judge in the Caretolive suit yesterday sent a clear message in denying discovery until he hears the Motion to Dismiss. As an attorney I believe it's close to 100% he will grant the motion. Even if the allegations of politics at the FDA are true, those who had the decisionmaking power as to Provenge were still within their discretion to ask for more data. There's little chance he'll find they acted maliciously or outside their authority. Opinions on whether another drop is likely once the suit is thrown out? Or will that likelihood already be priced in?
Opinions as to likely reaction of share price if interim is not "successful"? What is "success" for the interim? Minimum p value for interim that would still suggest final p value may be stat sig?
I personally plan to add to an established core stake (50,000 shares) if the pps sees the 6's after the suit is dismissed and to hang on pending the interim. I'd probably go 100,000 shares on the chance the interim succeeds.
If it fails, but in a range that the study continues and management still pipes optimism for final results and the shares hit pre-AC levels I will probably again go all in to await the final. I believe Provenge works and that ultimately Impact will show it.
What do you all plan??
AI
