Biotech Values

[ghmm]

UTHR:
Added Value on the move. First let me say I am not good at short-term trading, if that is your interest the only thing I can add is there has usually been a high short position with the stock and it can be very volatile. Also earnings were spectacular. That being said I am confused by the early trading (I tried to buy but my broker wouldn't execute premarket at this time).

My only concern is secondary end-points (perhaps they were trending??) The improvement in 6MW is very significant and the fact that this is in addition to bosentan or revatio makes it more remarkable.

OK on valuation over the LONG term I can guide with the following:
1-Actelion bought CoTherix (for their Inhaled Prostacyclin-iloprost) for 420 million. Their only other product was dropped so one can safely assume they paid (net of cash) that for it.
2-The advantages of Viveta over Ventavis are numerous. Mainly more convenient dosing and longer half life.
3-Actelion only had NA rights (x-US I believe are Schering AG)
4-Analysts have 200-500MM peak sales. If the data are as good as they seem and the drug is approved my GUESTIMATE for peak sales would be greater then the high end as many on Oral drugs will add and United will pursue other trials to expand use.
5-The patent life is much further then Ventavis

I guess what I am saying is ON APPROVAL it should be worth more then what Actelion paid for Ventavis which would be about ~20/share value. Long-term I think it should be worth much more.

Some other Caveats are Ventavis has done poorly under Actelion and many patients have not stayed on drug. Sorry for the long winded answer hope it helps!

EDIT: OK the price movement is behaving more rationally now as volume picks up. An up move of 15+ would not surprise me