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Jim Rogers quits dollar after declaring US recession

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nostinkinc   Wednesday, 10/24/07 09:12:57 PM
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Jim Rogers quits dollar after declaring US recession

By Mark Kleinman in Hong Kong

Last Updated: 1:29am BST 25/10/2007

Jim Rogers, the veteran investor who predicted the 1999 commodities rally, declared that the US economy was "in recession" as he said he would take flight from the dollar and switch his investments into currencies including the Chinese yuan.

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Mr Rogers, who ranks among the world's best-known investment figures, said he was putting his faith in China's politically-sensitive currency alongside the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

"I live in Asia. It is really not that strange that I am selling out of the US dollar," he told The Daily Telegraph. "All other things being equal during the next six months, that's the way I will go. But if the Swiss franc goes through the roof, I probably won't put money into the Swiss franc."

Mr Rogers' comments are followed slavishly by many members of the international investment communities, and his view that the US economy is in a worse state than that suggested by most economic commentators is likely to add to pessimism in some quarters about its health.

"The US economy is undoubtedly in recession," he said. "Many parts of industry are actually in a state worse than recession. If it were not for [Federal Reserve Governor Ben] Bernanke putting huge amounts of money into the market, the stock market would probably be down much more than it is."

Mr Rogers, a long-time enthusiast for investing in stocks hanging on the coat-tails of China's economic boom, said he had not altered his views about the booming Shanghai stock market.

Earlier this year, with the benchmark Shanghai index trading at around 4000, Mr Rogers, a former investment partner of George Soros, added his voice to the chorus of warnings about an incipient bubble forming in the mainland Chinese capital markets.

With the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 5843 points, Mr Rogers said he was relaxed about the market's continued growth.

"I still feel the same way. It's not a bubble yet - if it goes past 9000 in January I'll have to sell. Bubbles always end badly," he said. "I do not want to sell Chinese stocks. I want to own them forever and I want my [four year-old] daughter to own them."

Mr Rogers' comments came as Warren Buffett, the 'Sage of Omaha', urged investors to be cautious about the Shanghai market's surge, which has seen it rise by more than 125pc this year.

Speaking to Bloomberg during a visit to China, Mr Buffett said Berkshire Hathaway, the investment company he fronts, shied away from buying into soaring stocks.

Mr Buffett has been a major beneficiary of Shanghai's growth, reaping a profit of hundreds of millions of dollars from his stake in PetroChina, one of the world's largest companies by market value.

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