Stock, Commodity Markets Sharply Lower Early
Monday, October 22--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock indexes and generally lower commodity futures markets.
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The start of the new trading week looks to be an ugly one for the bulls in most markets, except for U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar bulls. Another big down day in the stock market today could really rattle investors, again. There is now more widespread talk of recession in the U.S. economy. Here's an important point for traders--especially commodity traders--to remember: Slowing economic growth means less demand for raw commodities, and that raises the specter of deflation. Deflation is the arch enemy of commodity market bulls.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are solidly lower in early morning electronic trading. Bears have fresh downside technical momentum on their side, after big losses and bearish weekly low closes on Friday.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,490.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,480.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,500.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,506.80. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 2.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,486.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------ 1,520.15
1st Support:------ 1,490.80
2nd Support:------ 1,475.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,535.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,564.50
Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 2,128.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 2,120.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of 2,149.00 and then at 2,160.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 2,126.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 2,171.25
1st Support:------ 2,124.50
2nd Support:------ 2,099.25
1st Resistance:--- 2,196.50
2nd Resistance:--- 2,243.35
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 13,450 and then more stops just below support at 13,400. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 13,500 and then just above resistance at Friday's low of 13,550. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 13,283
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 13,673
1st Support:------ 13,437
2nd Support:------ 13,313
1st Resistance:--- 13,797
2nd Resistance:--- 14,033
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures prices are higher early today. Bulls have fresh upside near-term technical momentum, amid "flight-to-quality" into safer investments like the Treasuries.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 113 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 114 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 113 even. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:112 20/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DCEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:----------- 112 31/32
1st Support:----- 112 14/32
2nd Support:----- 111 20/32
1st Resistance:-- 113 25/32
2nd Resistance:-- 114 10/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 110.28.8 and then just above resistance at the contract high of 110.31.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 101.18.0 and then more sell stops just below support at 110.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 109.29.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:------------ 110.13.0
1st Support:------ 110.01.0
2nd Support:------ 109.16.0
1st Resistance:--- 110.30.0
2nd Resistance:--- 111.10.0
BECAUSE YOU CAN READ THIS, THANK A TEACHER. BECAUSE IT'S IN ENGLISH, THANK A SOLDIER.
