Intel Corp (INTC)

[ChipGeek]

Beamer, I think you're buying a little too much into the never-ending story from AMD apologists.

I'm with you on AMD's probable financial success in Q4. Their Q3 results were surprising, and bodes well for sniffing profitability soon.

But I disagree on the effect that will have on their stock price. I think the current level of $14-$15 is based entirely on high expectations of break-even in Q4, and I don't think doing so will send it much higher.

As for Q1, I think all the additional 45nm capacity that Intel will be bringing online will put much more pressure on AMD than they felt in Q3 or will feel in Q4. Combined with normal seasonality, I think the possibility exists for another Q1 warning like we saw this year.

I bought long-term 09 puts for a reason, and I plan to hold through Q1 for better or worse (though it's a very small number of contracts). I do admit that the general market behavior on Friday is playing a role in my thinking as well, as AMD puts tend to be my favorite way to hold a small hedge against a market meltdown.

Should be interesting to watch it all unfold, at any rate...