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SOYO
great post on SOYO by OldPro...

Posted by: OldPro
In reply to: None Date:10/21/2007 6:51:17 PM
Post #of 2448

New numbers - crunched out some estimates...

Share Data:
* 49 million shares outstanding
* 23 million shares in float

Historic Financial Data and Forecast
Revenue:
2005 = $38,263,032
2006 = $56,758,688
2007 = $100,000,000 (company forecast)

EPS:
2005 = $(0.01)
2006 = $0.01
2007 = $0.07 (company forecast)

Current Share Price Value Estimates
At 2007 annual EPS of $0.07 and revenue of 100 mil, year over year growth is as follows:
EPS = 600%
Revenue = 76%
Both are accelerating, that is both values are greater than previous year over year comparison (2005 to 2006 growth in EPS = 200%; growth in revenue = 48%)

1. Per Yahoo, competitors have an average PE of 35, however, these companies are averaging only 14.7% quarterly year over year revenue growth – whereas SOYO has much higher growth. Therefore, using Yahoo value should give conservative estimate:
X = share price = (35 x 0.07) = $2.45 = reasonable target price for year end 2007.
If factor in growth differences using ratio: 2.45(76/14.5) = $12.8

2. Yahoo provides PEG ratio for industry at 1.82. Using PEG ratio factors in growth. Will use conservative growth based on revenue and not the much higher EPS growth although formula calls for EPS growth. Annual revenue growth is estimated at 76%.
1.82 = (X/.07)/76
X = share price = $9.7

3. Using PE = % EPS growth rate = 600% (throw out – too high).
Will again use forecasted 2007 annual revenue growth for estimates instead of EPS growth.
X = (76 x .07) = $5.3

4. Account for growth using a common method of taking PE to be 2 times EPS growth – but that would put at 1200%, and we already decided to use 76% - so PE should be 152 – which is not that unreasonable given rate of growth occurring.
X = (152 x .07) = $10.6

Future Share Price Value Estimates
2008(estimate)
Revenue: $200,000,000
EPS: $$0.21
Based on estimated revenue growth of 100% and EPS growth of 300% - which is conservative given that both revenue and EPS are accelerating and this assumes they are decelerating. Note that Honeywell TVs will be selling in 2008 and other higher margin products should be gaining traction. Disclaimer: These estimates are very rough and subject to dramatic change.

Using PE of 35 gives share price = $7.35 = reasonable target price for year end 2008 if meet above estimates
Using PEG 1.82 gives share price = $38.22