TA and fundamentals
by: skeeterville (49/M/Haslett, MI) 01/03/02 09:18 pm
Msg: 27152 of 27153
On December 27 LCAV broke above its 50-day moving average of $0.80. In the five times since 1997 when LCAV broke above the 50 day MA, it has gone up dramatically in a short time:
Jan 97 - up 128% in 4 months
Mar 98 - up 232% in 2 months
Nov 98 - up 827% in 6 months
Dec 99 - up 43% in 3 months
Jan 01 - up 102% in 2 months
The average increase was 226% in 3.4 months. That would put LCAV at $2.60 by mid-April. A look at the chart shows no resistance until $1.75. Keep in mind that LCAV was $2.00 right before 9/11. Technically this stock is a slam-dunk.
Fundamentally, there is no shartage of Americans with bad eyesight. Laser surgery can correct that. I know; I had it done, and it changed my life. Eventually this surgery will become commonplace, and stocks like LCAV will trade like utilities. But during this early growth phase, there are going to be some huge growth spurts as well as some rough patches, especially during a recession. Profits were crimped by low-balling competition that has now gone belly-up. That's good news for LCAV, which is now in a position to raise its prices, which it has been doing throughout 2001.
LCAV has shown it knows how to keep costs down and conserve capital during tough times. There are only a very few ways investors can play this emerging technology, and LCAV will be a survivor. It's easy to see this stock at $7 to $10 in a couple years.
Considering that LCAV has $0.44 in cash for every share, the stock is trading at $0.45 plus cash on hand. Multiply that times the 46 million shares outstanding, and the company is priced at $20.7M plus cash. If the recession turns into a depression, which is unlikely, LCAV still has a $20M line of credit available. So it's hard to envision a scenario in which it would go out of business, especially given its frugal ways.
I'm an investor, not a gambler. I made 373% on investments last year. But if I was a gambler, I would bet that LCAV will be over $1.00 by mid-January, and over $2.00 by the end of February.
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