InvestorsHub Logo
Followers 13
Posts 757
Boards Moderated 0
Alias Born 10/25/2003

Re: None

Monday, 10/15/2007 2:46:47 PM

Monday, October 15, 2007 2:46:47 PM

Post# of 8473
OT- Kinda - From Crain's

Harvard M.B.A.s indicate market top
Aaron Elstein

A record 40% of Harvard's latest crop of M.B.A.s went to work on Wall Street this year. That's a glaringly clear signal to sell stocks, according to Ray Soifer, a Harvard alumnus and former brokerage industry analyst who gathered the data and came up with the off-beat idea of using the numbers as a barometer of market trends.

Mr. Soifer advises investors to sell stocks any time that more than 30% of graduates from Harvard Business School choose to work for brokerage firms, private equity shops, or hedge funds. The thinking holds that if so many bright young people choose to do such mind-numbing tasks as crunching numbers, preparing Power Point presentations, or pricing collateralized debt obligations, that's a sure sign of a market top. Conversely, any time fewer than 10% take jobs on Wall Street that's a signal to buy stocks.

Mr. Soifer, a former analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman who got his Harvard M.B.A. in 1965, readily admits that his indicator is imperfect. In fact, 2007 represents the third straight year that more than 30% of Harvard M.B.A.'s have gone to Wall Street, yet the market has posted excellent gains since 2003.

Still, the Harvard data proved prescient in predicting the end of the technology stock bubble. Fully 30% of the school's M.B.A's entered Wall Street in 2000, just as the bubble collapsed and a three-year bear market began.

"The signal will be accurate one of these days," predicts Mr. Soifer.

That seems to be the story with most similar indicators 8-)
Volume:
Day Range:
Bid:
Ask:
Last Trade Time:
Total Trades:
  • 1D
  • 1M
  • 3M
  • 6M
  • 1Y
  • 5Y
Recent RPRX News