Let's think realistically...
I think it would be more insightful if we tune our thinking to what Cortex mgmt is likely thinking.
As popular a pastime as it has been to bash them, I don't think Cortex mgmt is inept nor shortsighted.
So I suspect contingency plans have been considered ahead of time. Examples of evidence of this would be the continual discussion about in-licensing, and the financing happening at the time it did. Dr. Stoll has pointed out before that bad things sometimes happen to good drugs, and that having multiple drugs in the pipeline is critical in case one dies.
It's not crass to take into consideration mgmt's options, they have a lot of them and it will be human nature to want to protect and maximize their value.
On the one hand, this is good because the dynamic now that the stock price has sunk so low that mgmt's interests are squarely aligned with ours ===> get the share price up!
On the downside, it could cause mgmt to accept a sub-optimal buyout that rewards them due to their large number of options (perhaps they get repriced in a deal or whatever a legal equivalent of that would be in a buyout) but sells the company for much less than its true value.
Again I'm not making any accusations or being crass, I'm just saying that the existence of mgmt's options is likely to play into whatever go-forward decisions are made.
I'll stop here in terms of trying to predict what plans mgmt will be suggesting because I'm sure there are others here who can suggest more realistic scenarios and will know of more factors to add to the decision matrix.
My key point is this: we all have opinions about what should happen, and preferences about Cortex's future course. But these are mostly moot points in terms of what will really happen.
We need to think of this, as best as we can do so, from Cortex mgmt's perspective. That will lead us to what is most likely to actually happen, or be proposed.
A CC will probably lay out Cortex's plans, but the more we can think about what's realistically likely to be proposed ahead of time and hash it out here, the better prepared we will be to ask questions and present counter-arguments and point out weak spots in what might be presented in the CC.
My goal wouldn't be to be argumentative in the CC, it would be to discuss as throughly as possible both sides of whatever plans Cortex mgmt presents to us.
Our collective investments are riding on doing our best to influence what is best for shareholders. Maybe we can influence it, maybe not. But at least we can be as well informed as possible going into the CC so we can properly evaluate whatever plans are presented.
