Sunday, October 14, 2007 2:27:09 PM
In regard to figuring out a potential pps due to a sale of COR, I think one thing we could focus our attention on is the history of depressed bio stock sales. At least then we can start talking apple to pears, instead of apples to trees.
From my limited exposure to bio-stock trading, one thing I have noticed, is that a buyout regularly occurs when a small bio company has had a nice run-up in stock price due to some new promising technology, then the hint of a buy-out starts to rumble through the grapevine, the stock appreciates some more, and then a nice premium of 25-30% gets added on the top when a sale eventually happens.
Does anyone have a handfull of examples from previous stocks that have been kicked down so low like COR, and then ended up getting bought out? Was there at least a nice run up prior to the sale? Was the premium better than 25-30%
I know it's all speculation at this point.. But, I think if we can focus on a similar situation to COR's, we may be able to at least set some decent expectations on a buy-out pps.
My gut would tell me that if a sale occurs, the acquiring company wouldn't shy away if COR had a nice little rumor run up around 1.50, then bought out COR at around 2.00-2.15.
Once COR is on the market, I think BPs will have a bit of a bidding war since it is so insanely cheap right now for what it's IP can deliver to someone with loads of cash.
The difference between buying COR at 1.50 or 2.50 is peanuts to a big BP. The key at this point wouldn't be 25M here or 25M there, it would be that COR's IP is now for sale. One thing we can rest easy on is that a potential COR suiter won't be scared away by the price tag.. even at $2 and beyond.
As for the BOD directors voting out Stoll, it might be the best move to get the auction for COR started. It would show that they are serious in a sale, and not letting a scientist get in the way of the correct finincial move.. It also would make the sale easier for the BP, for they wouldn't have to deal with Stoll once they bought COR..
Just my 2 cents.. The weekend is almost over, and the only thing I can focus on now is the future.. An that future hopefully will involve a sale to a BP for somewhere over $2.
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