Wednesday, October 10, 2007 11:31:37 PM
I've been wrestling with this question myself. This week, one could say that earnings warnings and analyst downgrades are the culprit.
But the SOX has been underperforming for about the past 3 months.
One partial explanation is that the SOX index is not that representative of the overall semiconductor sector. It is a price-weighted index (like the Dow), which means that the largest weighted components (at about 11% each) are KLA-Tencor and SanDisk. A more representative index is the one underlying the Ishares Semiconductor ETF, symbol IGW. As you can see from the linked chart, IGW has not been underperforming as badly as the SOX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IGW&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p09180611755
However, IGW is still about 4% beneath its July highs, even though other classically cyclical plays (materials, industrials) are doing extremely well.
Attempting to be open-minded to what the market is saying, one could infer that semis are weak because worldwide consumer purchases of PC's, cell phones, and CE items will be relatively soft this holiday season - - i.e., that the continuing cyclical expansion will be driven by capital spending rather than by the consumer.
While I'm watching for signs of the validity of this scenerio, I'm not buying it yet. Sometimes the market just misprices a group for a period of time. I'm still looking for the Semis to substantially outperform the market into year-end, and I expect MRVL to substantially outperform the group.
The past couple of days I've been buying May 20 Calls in the $1.05 to $1.10 area. You need to go out to May to encompass the next two earnings reports - - even the February options will only include one quarterly earnings report.
By May, MRVL's turnaround and growth will be apparent to everyone, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock at around $30.
Recent MRVL News
- Marvell Extends Connectivity Leadership With Industry's First 1.6T PAM4 DSP for Active Electrical Cables • PR Newswire (US) • 06/27/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Marvell Technology, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend Payment • PR Newswire (US) • 06/21/2024 08:05:00 PM
- Form SD - Specialized disclosure report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/31/2024 08:06:26 PM
- Dell Shares Drop 15% in Pre-Market; Gap Soars 24% on Surprising Quarterly Profits, and More in Earnings • IH Market News • 05/31/2024 11:50:33 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/30/2024 08:06:48 PM
- Marvell Technology, Inc. Reports First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results • PR Newswire (US) • 05/30/2024 08:05:00 PM
- Marvell Expands Connectivity Portfolio With New PCIe Retimer Product Line to Scale Compute Fabrics of Accelerated Infrastructure • PR Newswire (US) • 05/30/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/16/2024 10:14:13 PM
- Form ARS - Annual Report to Security Holders • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/08/2024 08:10:11 PM
- Form DEFA14A - Additional definitive proxy soliciting materials and Rule 14(a)(12) material • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/08/2024 08:07:41 PM
- Form DEF 14A - Other definitive proxy statements • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/08/2024 08:05:59 PM
- Marvell Technology, Inc. Announces Conference Call to Review First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results • PR Newswire (US) • 05/06/2024 08:05:00 PM
- Marvell Appoints Rick Wallace and Daniel Durn to its Board of Directors • PR Newswire (US) • 04/29/2024 01:00:00 PM
- GM Recognizes Marvell With 2023 Overdrive Award For Its Automotive Ethernet Technology • PR Newswire (US) • 04/23/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Marvell Launches Products, Technology and Partnerships at OFC 2024 to Scale Optical Technology for Accelerated Infrastructure • PR Newswire (US) • 03/26/2024 03:08:00 PM
- Marvell Announces Industry's First 5nm Transmit-Only 800G PAM4 Optical DSP for AI and Cloud Interconnects • PR Newswire (US) • 03/25/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Marvell Extends 1.6T Connectivity Leadership With Industry's First PAM4 Optical DSP Integrating 200 Gbps Electrical and Optical Interfaces • PR Newswire (US) • 03/25/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Marvell Doubles Reach of 800 Gbps ZR/ZR+ Pluggable Modules with PCS, Expands Ecosystem for COLORZ® 800 • PR Newswire (US) • 03/25/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Marvell Demonstrates Industry's First 200G 3D Silicon Photonics Engine to Scale Accelerated Infrastructure • PR Newswire (US) • 03/25/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Marvell Technology, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend Payment • PR Newswire (US) • 03/15/2024 08:05:00 PM
- Marvell Optical CTO Dr. Radha Nagarajan Awarded 2024 David Richardson Medal from Optica • PR Newswire (US) • 03/08/2024 02:00:00 PM
- Samsara Stock Surges 15% After Earnings Beat, MongoDB Faces 8% Decline Amid Gloomy Forecast • IH Market News • 03/08/2024 11:21:16 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/07/2024 09:10:01 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/07/2024 09:07:37 PM
- Marvell Technology, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results • PR Newswire (US) • 03/07/2024 09:05:00 PM
Cannabix Technologies and Omega Laboratories Inc. Provide Positive Developments on Marijuana Breathalyzer Testing • BLO • Jul 11, 2024 8:21 AM
ECGI Holdings Enhances Board with Artificial Intelligence (AI) Expert Ahead of Allon Apparel Launch • ECGI • Jul 10, 2024 8:30 AM
Avant Technologies to Meet Unmet Needs in AI Industry While Addressing Sustainability Concerns • AVAI • Jul 10, 2024 8:00 AM
Panther Minerals Inc. Launches Investor Connect AI Chatbot for Enhanced Investor Engagement and Lead Generation • PURR • Jul 9, 2024 9:00 AM
Glidelogic Corp. Becomes TikTok Shop Partner, Opening a New Chapter in E-commerce Services • GDLG • Jul 5, 2024 7:09 AM
Freedom Holdings Corporate Update; Announces Management Has Signed Letter of Intent • FHLD • Jul 3, 2024 9:00 AM