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Alias Born 10/03/2007

Re: Han2004fl post# 12828

Monday, 10/08/2007 1:58:06 PM

Monday, October 08, 2007 1:58:06 PM

Post# of 20076
You cut your earnings estimates in half, I see that now. So let me ask again then. Do you honestly think WWTBAM is going to capture 10% of the 2008 CCTV ad revenues?

I don't see how a show that is going to be on 2 times a week(1 re-run) on a network with 17 stations is going to capture 10% of the stations total prime time revenue dollars. The number 1 show in the US doesn't even capture that large of a share. Assuming a brand new show in China with no ratings track record in that country is going to surpass the highest rated show in the US is a bit presumptive.

The unknown number is how much WWTBAM/CCTV is going to charge for advertising time. You don't know what it is. I don't know what it is. Until we have that info the earnings models you are creating are pure speculation.
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