Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Last Updated: 4:17 PM GMT on October 07, 2007 — Last Comment: 9:01 PM GMT on October 07, 2007
Western Caribbean disturbance slowly organizing
Posted by: JeffMasters, 12:05 PM EDT on October 07, 2007
Thunderstorm activity has increased over the Western Caribbean a few hundred miles north of the northeast coast of Honduras. This area has been labeled "Invest 94L" by NHC. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a sharp wind shift in the region, but not a closed circulation. Satellite loops show a steady increase in heavy thunderstorm activity, but the cloud pattern has no organization yet. Surface pressures over the entire Western Caribbean, from Cancun to Cuba, to the Cayman Islands, and south and west to Honduras and Belize have shown a large drop over the past two days. It is uncommon for pressures to fall over this large of an area during hurricane season. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below through Tuesday. The low surface pressures, light wind shear, and warm ocean waters should allow a tropical depression to form by Tuesday at the latest. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon.
Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and any storm that does form may remain for a week over the high-heat content waters of the region. In that case, we can expect a hurricane a week from now. However, some of the models indicate a slow motion northwestward later this week, bringing the system over Belize or Mexico's Yucatan, before it would have a chance to intensify into a hurricane. The GFDL model predicts 94L will hit near Cozumel later this week as a tropical storm, then be forced south-westward deep into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. There is a trough of low pressure swinging across the U.S. later this week that may be strong enough to pull 94L northwards. Western Cuba, the west coast of Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas would be at risk in this scenario. The HWRF model is the only model showing this scenario.
In the shorter term, residents of northern Honduras can expect heavy rains beginning Monday. These heavy rains will likely spread to Belize on Tuesday and Mexico's Yucatan coast by Wednesday.
