La Niña winds expected to lift natural gas prices
Reg Curren
Bloomberg News
Monday, October 01, 2007
Natural gas prices in the United States may get a boost in the fourth quarter from a deep cold snap produced by a La Niña weather pattern, the first in almost seven years.
Bitter cold typically increases gas consumption for heating needs, lifting prices.
The last La Niña hit in November and December 2000, spurring the coldest two months on record, global warming notwithstanding, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climatic Data Center.
"The three-month average water temperature is now just crossing the threshold," said Tom Downs, a New York-based Weather 2000 Inc. meteorologist in a telephone interview Thursday.
"I'm sure in about a week you'll hear the government say there is an official La Niña event."
Natural gas futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange more than doubled between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2000, hitting $9.775 US on Dec. 29 from $4.686 on Nov. 1, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.9 cents, or 0.7 per cent, to settle at $6.87 per million British thermal units.
La Niña refers to cooling ocean surface temperatures off the western coast of South America. The phenomenon affects the jet stream, alters storm tracks and creates unusual weather patterns.
North America can experience "increased storminess, increased precipitation and an increased frequency of significant cold-air outbreaks" during a La Niña year, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md.
Weather 2000's Downs said there is no guarantee that temperatures this year will repeat the frigid weather of 2000.
"The frustrating thing for the public and meteorologists is there's not 100-per-cent linkage" between cold weather and La Niña, said Downs. "There's a lot of variability with La Niña."
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center last week said most of the U.S. would probably see above-seasonal temperatures over the next three months.
© The Edmonton Journal 2007
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