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Friday, September 28, 2007 8:24:56 PM
We are in a range and we are not in any kind of chart pattern hell. We're in the handle part of a lengthy cup-n-handle, if you want to know. The handle itself could be a pennant or a flag or a wedge, but the bigger chart pattern is a cup-n-handle going back to October 2006.
As to this recent week, the quick buck artists whose expectations were so off who bailed when the news was not the mega PR they craved were only able to generate a measely 20.29 million candle, and like the bear raid day, it too failed on both volume and price.
Today's vol was a measely 3.533 mill. Big deal. This is not chart pattern hell. We're in a range. A low volume range. And as to why the stock did not soar, well, read the books below and start the daily discipline of listening to the volume lessons Tom O'Brien gives each and every day, 3 hours a day. They're archived too, so you listen at your leisure. And they're free.
Fact is, the post-PR chart did exactly what it should have. It did not soar and it did not crash. Read and/or listen and the picture will come into focus.
And if you want to test some of your ideas and dicker around with combinations of indicators, I use http://www.stockfetcher.com which only costs $12.95 a month and is well worth it. I invented my own, which I call my "diffy"s and I have incorporated the volume principals into them and they work and they tell me when to time my trade.
Here's the skinny. The chart pattern is not the story, ever. Its just a part of the story. Here's what makes an indicator or crossing lines or a MACD or a Chaiken or whatever have meaning: the volume picture in the context of the chart pattern. Not the indicators and the candle pattern alone. Volume principals. Apart from the volume info, the chart is just a nice picture. The key is what Tom O'Brien calls the volume principals.
I posted the following links once before because they have helped me. The first book, and the associated daily web broadcasts, have the theme of teaching the volume principals. This is where the lightbulb should go off, so these are at the top of my list. Some of Pring's books come with CDs or DVDs, which is helpful.
I actually got Nison when he first published volume 1 way back in the 80's sometime. I've been at this trading thing a long time boys and girls. Then I read Morris and then Pring. I read all kinds of stuff that was not key. This is a short list but everything on it is key.
Until the volume principals, my overall mind's eye picture was out of focus. Lots of related concepts and useful stuff, but not a graspable whole. I found Tommy late in the game and only after many months of listening and poppoing up chart after chart he was talking about day after day for 3 hours every day did the picture come into focus. So, it takes time but it will open your eyes, believe you me. So check out these links folks.
The best resource on price & volume is:
"Timing the Trade: How Price and Volume Move Markets!" by Tom O'Brien
The new, updated 2007 edition is available from Tommy O'Brien's web site (not sure that the version in stock at Amazon is the 2007 version) and this is that link
http://www.safe-sure.net/store/merchant.mv?Screen=PROD&Product_Code=NEWTTT&Category_Code=FB&....
Also, he broadcasts 3 hours live each day at the following times & links:
9 AM Central (1 hr)
http://www.tfnn.com/listen_live.php#openinggrowl
3 PM Central (2 hrs)
http://www.tfnn.com/listen_live.php#tomobrien
He explains his volume based timing the trade approach over and over and over and over and over, day after day after day.
Next, you might think about reading these books:
"Candlestick Charting Explained" by Gregory L. Morris (2006) ISBN: 007146154X
"Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, Second Edition" by Steve Nison (2001) ISBN: 0735201811
"Momentum Explained, Volume II, with CD" by Martin J. Pring (2002) ISBN: 0071384030
"Technical Analysis Explained : The Successful Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points" by Martin J. Pring (2002) ISBN: 0071381937
((NOTE: Check out the review of this book in both Futures Magazine & Forbes Magazine
1. "One of the best books on technical analysis to come out since Edwards and Magee's classic text in 1948.... Belongs on the shelf of every serious trader and technical analyst."
Futures
2. "...Technical Analysis Explained [is] widely regarded as the standard work for this generation of chartists."
Forbes))
Now here's why I posted this. I'd rather have gone on to dinner, believe you me. I'm sick and tired of all this half-baked chart analysis. If I hear one more time that this week was a chart disaster, I'm going to blow chunks. I'm giving awaythe whole tackle box and putting you where the fish are. Its up to you to learn to fish. You think somebody wrapped such a list as this in a pretty bow and gave it to me? I don't think so!!
Outta here.... but wing, I see ya eying the hooka again.... stay back, bubbyy. Just back away!! Repeat after me: Its not a good idea to turn the board over to the inmates for the weekend. It was just the hooka bubby. Only the hooka!! And put down that Lawrence Welk 8-track!! (the hooka from Alice & Wonderland, folks... another of my failed attempts at humor, I'm sure LOL)
Imperial Whazoo
"Just my opinions, folks. Do your own due diligence & make your own decisions. DO NOT... I repeat... DO NOT make any investment decisions on my comments. They are my opinions. That's all they are... OPINIONS."
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