1812 Brewing Company Inc (KEGS)

[Quixotic1]

A few thoughts on SWVC

I’ve been in retail for almost forty years. I’ve owned two restaurants and one grocery store. The last restaurant/deli that I owned did 2.2M in sales with 3600 s/f, single location, and 45 employees.

I was really a believer in this stock until I read the numbers in 9-18-07 press release. I was even planning on visiting several of the stores of the weekend. I have since canceled the trip. The conditions facing this venture are monumental to say the least.

That upstate region of NY is known as the “Mississippi of the north” in economic terms. I was last in the area two years ago to visit the family farmstead in Sherburne, NY. Homes in the area were asking $150K for 4 BR, 2200sf, and 3 ac of land. This area can’t really support much more of a housing base…never mind a high-growth strategy. There simply aren’t that many people in the region.

The cash flow seems to be at a subsistence level certainly for WiseBuys, and maybe for Hackett’s. The PR further states that those figures include its partners’ sales as well. BigBox competition can get fierce in a hurry. The red ink could flow at the blink of an eye. Those sales numbers indicate a real “ghost town” compared to peers.

High risk capital is rising in cost if not drying up all together. This will continually put pressure on the break even point.

Since we are so forward looking for this venture…we would be fools to ignore the tempest of dark economic indicators that are grouping on the horizon. These will challenge even the most season of executives. I hope the growth plans have contingencies in them for $80 barrel oil, a poor holiday season forecast, and continued new lows in the dollar index.

At this point, the sales numbers have been whispered…I believe in an attempt to defuse the shock of not coming anywhere expectations.

I would be a convert if I could catch a glimpse of Tom’s marketing plan. Rent is rent, labor is labor, ins is ins; but every strategic marketing plan is unique and could propel this company to the stratosphere…but let us see and understand it. It could also balloon expenses and sink a start-up faster than lake-effect snow can snarl granny in Buffalo traffic.

I’m out of my position since reading the PR…but would get back in if I was sufficiently inspired by the marketing plan.

Thank you for reading…GLTA