Great post for anyone who hasn't read it:
Posted by: xyz1002
In reply to: None Date:9/8/2007 11:53:09 AM
Post #of 46822
I made a phone call to a PE friend who invests in retail, as I don't. I know squart about retail as my focus is only in Biotech/Drugs etc. Afetr a 45 mins conversation, I was pleased to hear what he had to say about Wisebuys, Hackett and the retail business in general Here are some points if its of any value
1) The market that Wisebuys/Hacketts serves is under-served now and there is plenty of opportunities in those markets.
2) Just on the top of his head he said there is opportunity to identify 200-300 such geographic location that can be served by such store
3) This business model is very different from your Wallmart, or Taget model. Each store has some common retailsection but most importantly each store has goods/sub-store to serve the geographic needs. For example, some store may have a section for all hardware and plumbing tools if the locals are involved in that business. A store near a oceanside may have a section for everything you need at the beach or in fishing, boating etc.
4) That is great because it allows the store to have a lot higher margin on such products that the locals need the most.
5) Although he gave a disclaimer that he doesn't know the inside margins of Wisebuys/Hacketts, he suspect that its more than industry average because of the nich they serve.
6) He emphasized that the guy at the helm of affair is an ex- BJ's executive and he knows his chit, otherwise he wouldn't risk his career working here. Importantly, if the profit margin was not good enough they wouldn't plan to expand rapidly.
7) His opinion was that there are still many ex-Ames stores available for grab and these folks may have already cut a deal to buy those or have done the DD enough that they can have it. These are the only ppl in town to buy the Ames properties. No one else will have much interest.
8) if Tom can show the profit margins and prove his competative advantage there seems to be too many big PE folks more than happy to write a check to buy these stores.
9) One big negative he pointed out that, if Tom can't buy existing infrastructure at cheap, that would be an issue. Building new infrastructure is a lot more costly and takes time to get local govt approval, paper works and after all to build the damn building.
Basically, you have to have faith that Tom can pull this thing nicely and you can retire in next 2-3 years with this investment. No one can gurantee that he will succeed and thats why its trading where its trading now.
From an investment prospective, my own analysis is the downside risk is almost zero at this point. The stock is so undervalued that one can start thinking about valutaion after it has gone to may be 20-50 cents. It all depends what we hear in the coming weeks.
btw- The Wisebuys/Hackett is all that we know so far. However, this is an investment company and will have various investments under their portfolio. There have been some mention of GS agri brought under the umbrella as well but at this point its all rumor. Will wait to see as Tom makes his intention public and the valuation will go up accordingly.
As I've mentioned it many times before, I think Tom's intention is to take this stock to $1-$5 range and move it to a higher exchange. So that he can use the stcok as a currency for M&A activities.
You can invest long term or trade short-term whatever works for you.
Best of luck.
ALL POSTED BY AMERICAN_PSYCHO IS EITHER FACT OR OPINION.
AI
