Trading with Jerry Olson

[Jerry Olson]

JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED SEPT 16TH 2007
"EXPLOSION OR IMPLOSION"

Hello out there all my cyber trading friends from around the globe on this glorious sunny Sunday here in good old Philly USA. This is the best time of the year, changes in seasons & the weather, along with the sweet smell of that fresh autumn air. It's good to be alive!

Needless to say but the week of Sept 17th 2007 will go down in the annals of trading the markets as one of "the" most interesting weeks for years gone by and years to come. Not only is this Triple Witching Options Exportation week, but guess what? Ahh you already knew it right? The infamous FOMC meeting Tues of this week will no doubt bring a smile or tear to many traders eyes. It's obviously going to be watched by every country in the world, with glued eyes to the screens waiting with breathless anticipation for the incredible all important decision at 2:15 est. time Tues afternoon. In my very humble opinion this decision will be heard round the world as the definitive answer to the earth shaking question to cut or not to cut. I would guess folks that it will be the most watched announcement ever to date of this august body of movers and shakers. Will the markets explode or implode on that incredible tense announcement? In my Sept 3rd newsletter my headline was "The Fed Cuts rates". There is no change to that statement from me right here and right now. It is my contention that they will cut .25 basis points off the Fed Funds Rate, and as a show of strength also cut the discount rate another .50 basis points as well. This is no time for being meek and mild everyone. They need to make a serious statement to the world markets that they stand steadfast behind the notion of doing whatever it takes to bolster the "potential" push into the dreaded R word coming our way in the next two quarters. Make no mistake about it they have to react right now with force!

And react they will. Currently as we all know the Fed has been fighting the good fight against inflation real or otherwise. Over the last few months or more inflation has actually come down enough for them to ignore it right now. Then the next bit of news popped on the first Friday of Sept when the employment report shocked the street and the whole world as to how weak it was all of a sudden! Was this the so called "tell", the "trigger" if you will to give the Fed the cover they needed to do what is correct right now? Yes i say, yes it was, yes it is, and yes they'll cut. Now all the politicians are pounding their fists for a .50 basis point cut as well they should elections are coming up fast. Let's get on that bandwagon and see if we can "push" the Fed into action in a big way. Yeah well forget that folks. Ben Bernanke & Co. will never cut .50 basis points because it will scare the hell out of the wall street weaklings right to there inner core! All the current screamers on the boob tube are out there en force trying to jawbone the Fed to do the same thing. Gee it's fun to watch all that nonsense over and over again and again. The day Jim Cramer went ballistic on CNBC, and i love this guy for what he represents to traders and investors, goes to show you how adamant some people believe the Fed is currently behind the curve demanding a lot more for the money. I say the Fed is NOT behind the curve and if they do what they will here it's going to be pro active not reactive. The Barney Franks of the world are trying to intimidate Ben B, but alas that will never work on mild mannered Kent Clark folks. Make no mistake about it, Mr. Bernanke, has total control over the problems and will act accordingly right now!

Ok so what does all this mean to us traders, us investors, us buy and holders. Obviously let's wait for one and half days to see what the Fed actually does, let's digest it, let the street wobble around for a few days trying to make sense of this action. Then of course the reaction will be what the markets world wide will conclude from this event. After years of studying the Point & Figure charts, sprinkling in the candlesticks as well. Using the two in tandem with each other, i have come to the conclusion we are going to explode not implode post FOMC! Oh we may jiggle around for a few days maybe a week or two, but the way the charts are setting up right now the onus is on us bulls goring the bears into total submission. You heard it here first my trading friends. We are with out a doubt going to new highs over the next 6-12 months, with a potential breakout of the recent July highs coming our way within a week or so on high and heavy volume. The funds are going to be buying everything that is not nailed down. Damn the torpedoes full speed ahead. Yes we have high crude prices but they're ready to fold and roll down, yes we have high commodity prices but the world is growing fast these days and we'll just have to live with higher prices over time since our wages are going up as well. It is time for all of us to be ready willing and able to make the necessary next steps to wealth appreciation and stop worrying about wealth preservation. We all shall wait for the news, the answer Tues at 2:15 and then the reaction to same. Stand fast and do not be afraid!
================================================================================================================

the password for this week is-------------------- wildweek ------------------------- one word lower case letters...please type in correctly gosh!
================================================================================================================

DJIA---13,500 IS THE NEW BUY SIGNAL ON THE P&F CHART AND THE BREAK OUT ABOVE THE PENNANT TOP http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ1.gif

NASD-COMP---SAME LOOK SAME SET UP WE NEED TECH TO PUSH US HIGHER RIGHT NOW http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ2.gif

NDX 100 INDEX----ALL GAPS ARE FILLED ON THIS DAILY CHART. THE NDX IS LEADING THE MARKETS HIGHER ALONG WITH THE BULLISH PERCENTS TOO 2040-60 IS MAGICAL http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ3.gif

RUT 2000 SMALL CAP INDEX---WHILE IT MAY NOT BE EVIDENT TO MOST THIS INDEX IS BUILDING A LARGE SIDEWAYS BASE. ANY PRICE OVER 808 AND WE'RE GOING TO NEW ALL TIME HIGHS http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ4.gif

SOX INDEX SEMICONDUCTORS---NOTICE ON THIS CHART THE SEMIS ARE AT SOLID SUPPORT AT THE 200 EMA. BUT ALSO AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LOWER TINE ON THAT FORK I DREW TOO. I'M LOOKING FOR A POP HIGHER THIS WEEK TO HELP THE WHOLE MARKET http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ5.gif

XAU AN ETF FOR GOLD TRADERS---ALL GOLD CHARTS ARE AT EXTREMES AND NEAR THE TOP OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND. EXPECT A SELLOFF IN GOLD THIS WEEK OR NEXT http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ6.gif

CRUDE OIL CONTINUOUS CHART---OVERBOUGHT ON ALL TIME FRAMES DUE FOR A PULL BACK THIS WEEK OR NEXT http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ7.gif

TLT LEHMAN 20 BOND INDEX---OVERBOUGHT HERE AT THE TOP OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND EXPECT A CORRECTION IN BONDS WHICH IS BULLISH FOR STOCKS http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ8.gif

TNX THE 10 YEAR YIELDS---OVERSOLD DEEPLY ON THE CHARTS DUE FOR A REVERSAL BACK UP HERE ALSO BULLISH FOR STOCKS http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ9.gif

SPX 500 INDEX---MY PROXY FOR THE MARKETS---THE CHART SAYS IT ALL http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ10.gif

BOTH THE ES Z7 & NQ Z7 FUTURES ARE SETTING UP FOR A BIG MOVE UP MARKET WILLING. WEEKLY MOMENTUM ON THE MAJOR CHARTS ARE ALL POSITIVE AFTER BEING NEGATIVE FOR 12-13 WEEKS IN A ROW.

ALL AND ALL THIS WEEK INTO OCT TIME FRAME SHOULD BE ONE WILD RIDE INTO THE ABYSS. STAY TUNED FOLKS
===============================================================================================================

the password for this week is wildweek one word lower case letters
================================================================================================================

RMBS---18.75 THE BTL---18.10 THE SST---THERE WAS NEWS POST CLOSE FRIDAY ABOUT THEIR OPTIONS SITUATION. THEY HAVE MET SEC REQUIREMENTS TO REPORT PAST QUARTERS EPS INFORMATION. ON TOP OF THAT THERE IS COMING COURT NEWS, ON TOP OF THAT JAVA MAY IN FACT BE A SUITOR AT 21.00 BUCKS. ALL AND ALL A BULLISH BENT FOR RMBS GOING FORWARD. MY JAN 2008 & JAN 2009 LEAPS CALLS AT THE 20 STRIKE ARE GOING BONKERS. I ONLY HOPE ALL OF YOU OWN THEM AS WELL.

LEH---59.80 THE BTL---59.20 THE SST---HAS EPS DATE TUES AFTER THE BELL THIS IS A BIG ANNOUNCEMENT FOLKS

MS---66.45 THE BTL---65.80 THE SST---HAS EPS DATE PRE MARKET WEDS BUT WILL REACT LATE TUES NIGHT OFF LEH

GIS---58.00 THE BTL---57.45 THE SST---HAS EPS DATE WEDS PRE MARKET HAD A 2 STICK PULL BACK ITS READY NOW

OMTR---27.55 THE BTL---23.95 THE SST---LIKE THE ENERGIZER BUNNY KEEPS GOING AND GOING UNREAL FOLKS

ATVI---20.25 THE BTL---19.75 THE SST---KEEPS KNOCKING AT THE DOOR LOOKING FOR A BIG POP ON A GOOD DAY

EBAY---38.10 THE BTL---37.50 THE SST---JUST LOOKS GREAT HERE RUNNING UP AHEAD OF EXT MONTHS EARNINGS

CELG---69.35 THE BTL---68.70 THE SST---IN THE IBD NEW AMERICA PAGE LAST WEEK DUE FOR A NICE RALLY HERE

CHL---70.35 THE BTL---69.70 THE SST---SENSATIONAL CHINA STOCK HERE FOLKS WITH BULLISH IMPLICATIONS GOING UP

XLF---34.25 THE BTL---33.70 THE SST---IT'S ET UP FOR A BIG MOVE HIGHER IF THE BROKERS CAN COME IN GOOD
===================================================================================================================

SO WE ALL WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE FED. MY THINKING IS WE RALLY UP AHEAD OF TUES AT 2:15 LET'S TRADE IT SMART

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK ALL

SEE YOU IN THE ROOM

JERRY & INNA


Jerry Olson
The Jog Group LLC
[e-mail]