CYGX Shareholders Meeting Report Part 2 (TexasLongTrader)
Thanks to everyone for the generous feedback - I am glad to see some interesting discussions sparked. I will cover questions in my next post.
This part of the report is my interpretation of what I heard, along with extrapolations of what it might mean. Please take this with a grain of salt and don't shoot the messenger.
First and foremost, I was a little disappointed in some things:
- No clear funding solution (other than keep selling stock via traunches)
- Lack of "significant" progress on clinical testing - Phase I not even started for HSV
- Lack of approved patents with no clear approval date in sight
- Phanuel has not made much progress since the initial announcement
However, I did see a lot of things that made sense to me:
- They clearly have a long-term vision of where they want to be
- This vision has a lot of baby steps involved
- The payout if the vision is accomplished will be tremendous
- They are purposely keeping their burn rate as small as possible (very encouraging)
- The GMP lab could become a nice jewel in their portfolio if it actually happens
- They are involved with some nice Sponsored Research Agreements, thus getting exposure and "free" validation of their technologies
- They seem to be making progress with getting in print (research papers, invited speakers, etc)
- More patent applications are forthcoming
- They are expanding their interests to include the rhino virus, HPV, anti-bacterials, anti-inflammatories, anti-fungals, etc. This tells me that something is really working for them to expand their focus.
- They are researching different deployment technologies, including a viral approach.
- The NIH grant was nice, and maybe we will hear some good news about it soon
- Sepsis is already being tested on mice
My best guesses for what is going to happen (GUESSING, NOT BASED ON SPECIFIC KNOWLEDGE) are:
1-6 months:
- Announcement of new patent applications for rhino virus and sepsis
- Announcement of NIH grant for lung cancer study (Densmore)
- Announcement that Phase I trials for HSV are starting in India
- Funding traunches with possible investment banking relationship
- Anti-herpes topical IND submission by 3rd Quarter
7-18 months:
- Major funding effort
- Clinical trials for HSV in PRC
- Sepsis IND submission later this year (maybe Q4?)
- Kick off for GMP Lab (if in fact they decide to do this)
- Alliance with major pharma (based on positive clinical trials)
>18 months:
- Phase II completion for HSV
- Possible acquisition of delivery company
- Nasdaq small cap application (unless a miracle occurs and they can get on sooner)
- Completion of GMP Lab (if in fact they decide to do this)
Overall, I was both disappointed and excited. On one hand, I expected more clinical trial progress and better funding news. No Major Pharmas are going to step up to the plate until we reach Phase II clinical testing. On the other hand, I heard about how they are approaching their business and it made total sense to me and I believe it will work for them.
This is a slow industry in general, much slower than I realized. The patent process is excruciating, and clinical trials abroad involve political as well as medical hurdles. They are attacking their market opportunity from a variety of angles, any one of which might pay off. The technology sounds incredible, much like a master key that can open any lock (for evidence of this, witness the ever-expanding areas of focus, like rhino virus, HPV, etc. I don't recall them being so vocal about these new opportunities before.)
I have my concerns about the GMP lab idea, but I will reserve judgment until they actually announce formal plans - there is a decent chance this will not happen, or if it does, it might be a while (at least until they obtain significant funding). If it does happen, I would not expect it to start until a major funding effort occurs.
In other words, patience will be required for their technology to make that breakthrough we are all wanting to see. Lots of patience.
I can see some short term spikes (and dips) coming as important pieces to this puzzle are disclosed, but it seems like the real payout is a longer term horizon than I originally expected. I could see the prices appreciating to a little under $2.00 by the end of the year based on potential, with explosive growth towards the middle/end of next year. I firmly believe this is a long-term hold, and by mid/end of next year we should have something unique.
All of this is my opinion only.
Thoughts?
--TX
AI
